Thursday, December 30, 2010

Cold with icy/foggy roads!

An interesting drive to work for many this morning. Icy roads in many places, patches of fog, all this AFTER you defrost your windshield and/or pry open your frozen car door. There have already been a couple accidents in the area so please, leave early and drive slow and cautiously this morning. If you commute over to the Portland area, ODOT reports black ice on Hwy 26 and 6, and the NWS advises there is freezing fog over in the Hillsboro, Portland, Vancouver, Oregon City areas. The State Police tell of patchy black Ice on I-5 between Portland and Wilsonville. While we are down near 30, they are in the 20s over there. The temperature will slowly rise to near 40 today so I don’t see conditions improving much across the summit areas today before we go down below freezing again tonight. Today and tomorrow should be sunny, but cool, and with clear skies again tonight, the temperature will fall below freezing and into the upper 20s. With the winds increasing to 10-15 gusting to 20 tonight, the windchill temperatures will make it feel like the teens! Sunday some clouds start to return ahead of an upper level disturbance moving down from the north that could bring some rain later Sunday. After that we might squeeze out a couple more nice days before another strong system affects the area.

The County Road department advises Bayocean Rd was reopened yesterday and Foss Rd is open at MP6, but still restricted to one lane at the slide area. They are also still clearing up several other small rock slides in various spots so be extra careful near these working roadcrews, especially with the slick roads!

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Cold, rainy and snowy today, improving tomorrow!

Several reports of snow on Hwy 101 from South County this morning and for sure there is snow on the passes above 700’. ODOT’s Tripcheck reports 1” of new snow with 2-3” on the roadside, and snow on the roads of both Hwy 6 and 26. Here at the office we had a shower move through earlier that left a white coating of hail on the ground and vehicles, and, there is more falling right now. All this to say, please, please drive safe and use extreme caution, take your time so you can arrive safely!

So, we can expect showers to move through today, with the snow level up around 600’ which will rise some today to about 1000’ before dropping down to at least 500’ again tonight. The low tonight is expected to be down near freezing so…if we do get a heavier shower overnight it could drag the snow level lower. It will be breezy today also, winds northwest 15-20 gusting to 25, so, it will feel much cooler than it is. Right now the temperatures are running around 38, which puts the wind chill at about 28!

The showers will start decreasing this afternoon as cool high pressure start to build in then cool dry weather will continue starting tomorrow into the weekend. We can expect daytime highs in the mid 40s and lows slowly warming into the mid 30s into the New Year. The next shot at rain starts the beginning of next week with significant rain expected again by Tuesday.


County Roads

The Public Works Director, Liane Welch, reports that Bayocean Rd, MP1, and Foss Rd, MP6 are still closed due to slides but they hope to have at least 1 lane open in the next few hours. She reports her crews are also hard at work dealing with several other small rockslides throughout the county and asks that drivers please drive slow and use caution when driving near any road crews, here or anywhere else!

She also reminds us that should the temperature drop to near freezing, or below, tonight, she has limited personnel to sand the many roads from North County to South County so PLEASE be cautious for black ice during the night and early morning hours wherever you drive!

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Cold front still coming...possible snow!

Lots of rain overnight, some areas have reporting 3-5” which has cause several issues this morning, Public Works reports they have been very active most of the night. As I write this, Miami Foley road has water covering both lanes at MP1, as does North Fork Rd., Foss Rd had a land slide and the road is closed, other land slides include Resort Dr, MP 2 partially blocking, and others are happening but things are very dynamic right now, changing moment by moment as they get cleared and others happen.

The heavy rains have also affected the rivers this morning, last reading the Nehalem was at 11.08 and cresting but forecasted to rise to 13.04’ later this morning, Action is 12.0 and Flood is 14.0. The Wilson River was at 9.69 (and cresting) and forecasted to crest at 11.26’ later this morning, Action is 10.5 and Flood is 12.0’. Obviously I will be monitoring this closely but my thinking is the rivers levels will fall until the next batch of rain then rise again briefly, but be below forecasted levels and below Action Stage.

More wet and breezy today as the cold front continues to develop and approach the coast. Currently the freezing level is near 4000’ and our temperatures are running in upper 40s across the area with light rain. We can expect another burst of rain as the front pushes through but the satellite picture suggest to me that the main surge of moisture and winds will pass us to the south. Once the front get through later today or tonight, the temperatures will start to fall until reaching a low of 35 by early morning. More showers are expected tomorrow with the snow level down near 500’ then rising in the afternoon to maybe 1000’ before falling again in the evening and we could see a rain/snow mix after 4pm, or snow overnight, with any remaining showers but little to no accumulation is expected. Wednesday night and Thursday night the lows will be near freezing but there is a decreasing chance of showers into Thursday and Friday. New Years Day we could get some sun breaks, high near 47, low near 35 as high pressure builds in though we will still need to watch a system forecasted to move into California next Friday into the weekend.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Moe Low Snow Expected!

We had showers moving across the area this morning but the rain from the next system is already moving onshore. As of 7am this morning, ODOT was still reporting snow flurries up at the higher passes though this should turn over to rain soon as the snow level will temporarily rise today and this evening. Later this evening we can expect some moderate, occasionally heavy rain to develop as the front itself works its way through and the usual winds, gusting to 35 inland and 55 along the coast. While the rivers will surge up about 3’, they will still crest several feet below Action Stage. After the front goes through tonight we will continue to have showers into tomorrow when the colder air settles in causing an increase in showers which will turn to snow in the Coast Range (1-3”) as the snow level drops to between 500-1000’ by tomorrow evening. The showers will continue into Wednesday with the snow level hovering down around 500’ still (another 1-3”), possible even lower over in the valley with colder air spilling in through the Gorge. Thursday we should see decreasing shower activity but with the lower snow levels, snow showers are still possible in the passes Thursday morning. High pressure is expected to build in by Thursday afternoon to help dry things up a bit through Sunday.

Advisories, Watches and Warnings

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon today when a Gale Warning takes effect thru 6am Tuesday.

The Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Watch for the coast and Coast Range has expired. The High Wind Watch may be reissued later today as the winds are expected to get close to warning criteria and the previous Winter Weather Advisory has expired but I would expect another to be issued later this evening for tomorrow’s expected snowfall activity.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Rainy Christmas Forecast

Showers off and on all day with some sun peeking through every now and then, but the clouds return overnight and by tomorrow morning we will be cloudy and rainy as the next warm front slowly makes its way east towards the coast. By Friday the associated cold front should be inching towards the coast but won’t make it thru until Christmas Day. It appears the main energy of this system will be aimed at rain-soaked California again but we should still see moderate amounts of rainfall in our area. The front will be driven by a broad area of low pressure sitting up over the northeast Pacific, just like last week and the week before. What this means for us is – after Christmas we will be stuck in the same ol’ pattern of disturbances rotating under the low and over the area causing rainshowers and periods of rain for much of next week. Temperatures for the rest of the week, highs near 50, lows near 40, slightly cooler temperatures expected for next week and the snow level is up above 3,000’.

Advisories, Watches, and Warnings:

Small Craft Advisory in effect now thru 1am Thursday.
Gale Warning from 1am Thursday thru 10am Thursday
Storm Watch from Thursday morning thru Friday afternoon.

ODOT’s TripCheck shows intermittent rainshowers but it has removed the patchy ice information it had posted for Hwy 6 and 26 earlier this morning.

Gordon

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The forecast for the first day of winter!

We still have a few light showers racing to the northeast across the area but I am still hopeful that we could see some sun breaks today, even if seen through some thin high clouds. Another trough of low pressure will move across tonight, giving us another shot of rain overnight into tomorrow morning. This will again cause strong, cold winds through the Gorge area into the Portland/Vancouver area similar to the conditions experienced last Friday so that area could see a brief period of snow or rain/snow mix Wednesday morning. So for us, on Wednesday, more showers, maybe some sun breaks as another of those large, broad low pressure areas sets up over the northeast Pacific. We can expect this will cause more disturbances to rotate under the low and over our area, the first of which, a slow moving front, will be affecting our weather late Wednesday or early Thursday into Friday with periods of moderate rain through the weekend and possibly into next week. The cool, active pattern continues!

By the way, today is the first day of winter, the Winter Solstice. Today is the shorted day of the year and tonight the longest night, from this day on the days get longer each day through the spring.

Gordon

Monday, December 20, 2010

Wild Weather Weekend Continues

Wild weather weekend, lightening took out a Verizon cellphone tower, 8” of snow to start the weekend over the Wilson River Summit, sun, rain, winds, we had it all. We will have, and are having more showers today, and, there has been sporadic lightening detected in some of the showers offshore so one of these could make it onshore today though they appear to weaken as they get nearer to shore. Another low pressure system will develop off our coast tomorrow so we can expect more showers to start then steady rain by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thursday another cold front will slowly approach the coast so more rain is likely then a large low pressure system will set up over the northeast Pacific again which means periods of rain as disturbances rotate under the system and across the area from Friday, through the weekend, and, into next week. Snow levels will continue to be in the 1,500 to 3,000 range.

For those that may have travel plans that include the Columbia Gorge and Basin areas this week and weekend, little will change there, more snow is expected and with a cold easterly wind setting up, more cold air will spill into the Portland/Vancouver area by Wednesday so they could see another Rain/Snow mix with conditions similar to the end of last week, and that could include the icy roads and strong winds that downed trees and knocked out power in that area. Checking weather and road conditions prior to your travels is highly recommended. As an example, TripCheck this morning at around 7am was reporting Hwy 26 had slush and snow pack breaking up with a trace of new snow and 4” of snow roadside at 30 degrees, Hwy 6 was the same except 32 degrees and 6” roadside.

Gordon