Rain today, sunny tomorrow after morning fog.

After this system finally pushes through this evening, we will have lingering showers that diminish overnight. We can expect between 1 and 2” of rain from this system but this is still not enough to have a significant impact on current falling river levels. Over in the valley there are still some rivers that are near bankfull so they will be monitoring this rain event much more closely. By tomorrow high pressure will build in drying things out and giving us plenty of sunshine Saturday and Sunday though we could see fog develop overnight, burning off around 10am both mornings. The high pressure ridge will persist into next week keeping us dry and mild then the long range models suggest the next system will begin affecting our weather Thursday.

GAM

Rain returning tonight but a nice weekend expected!

A warm front will flatten the high pressure that gave us the nice weather the last couple days and bring clouds and rain to the area again today. The chance of rain begins later today then rain is likely later tonight lasting onto Friday as the warm front sags into the area from the north. As this will be a warm front the snow level will remain well above our pass levels. High pressure builds back in over the weekend so we should see a mix of sun and clouds, but dry. As for next week, the models are still not settling on one solution so will continue with dry still Monday and Tuesday with another system likely by midweek.

GM

Nice weekend coming!

No Watches, Warning or Advisories this morning but we do have areas of dense fog and it’s frosty with areas of ice on the roads too so leave early and drive safely. The fog should burn off by 10am leaving mostly sunny conditions and light northeast winds. Tomorrow morning will be similar to this morning then the high pressure will weaken and allow a warm front to sag into the area from the north tomorrow afternoon. The rain continues Friday then tappers off Friday night into Saturday morning. After that, a pleasant weekend is expected with mild and dry conditions to linger into the start of next week. The long range models are showing an approaching system towards the middle of next week.

GM

Things calming this week!

Quite a bit of rainfall over the weekend, Timberline registered 9.51”, Lee’s Camp 5.7”, Tillamook 5.35, Oceanside 4.81 and Pacific City 3.78”. The rivers (except the Nestucca) all crested above flood stage which flooded the usual areas. The big headlines came from the slide with several big ones on Hwy 6 which is still closed and may open later today or tomorrow. Other Highways with problems in Tillamook County are: Hwy 22 near MP10.5 has a sinkhole restricting traffic through the area, and ODOT was working an active slide on Hwy 101 near Rockaway which was restricting traffic. The County Road Department has also been quite busy with the following roads still closed: Slab Creek Road MP3.5 - culvert collapse, Cape Lookout Rd near the trailhead – slide, Kilchis River Rd MP3.8 – slide. There are several areas that have restriction because of various issues, culverts, slides blocking on lane, etc. These road conditions are very dynamic and changing quickly. To see the latest conditions, go to the county website, www.co.tillamook.or.us and look at Road Conditions under Emergency Info. Don't forget about looking on, and posting on Gordon's Tillamook Weather Center if you have information about weather or raods to share!

So, the weather will not be as active the rest of the week. We have a weak upper level disturbance giving us light rain today then high pressure builds in tonight so tomorrow we will have mostly sunny conditions and Thursday we will see some sun again before a warm front will push it’s way across the top of the ridge to bring another chance of rain starting Thursday night into Friday. Another ridge of high pressure builds in over the weekend so cooler conditions but mostly dry. Temperature will continue to run near 50 for a high and lows down in the low to mid 40s.

Later Forecast numbers have many rivers reaching above flood level by morning.

New forecast levels recently released by the NWS River Forecast Office reflect today's higher rainfall amounts by elevating the forecasted crest as follows:

Nehalem River crest of 18.36, reaching flood level at between 5-8am and cresting at between 8-10pm.

- Expect widespread flooding of low lying farm lands and structures downstream of Foss Gauge to Nehalem. Street flooding in Nehalem begins, usually during high tide. Seaside Tides: High 6.0' at 8:47am, low 0.0' at 5:35pm, high 4.3' at 11:04

Wilson River crest of 13.65, reaching flood level at between 5-8am and cresting at between 7-9pm

- Expect widespread lowland and dairy land flooding begins. Sloughs begin to overflow. Minor flooding of Hwy 101 North Main area begins, especially during high tide. Garibaldi Tides: High 8.8' at 9:19am, low 0.0' at 4:39pm, high 6.3' at 11:36pm

Nestucca River is also now forecasted to exceed Action stage of 16.0', cresting at 16.74' at 4-6pm.

The NWS Portland has issued: in Tillamook County

- Flood Advisory for urban and small stream flooding of poor drainage areas until 12:15pm Sunday

- Flood Watch Watch thru Monday afternoon.

Did I tell ya it was gonna rain?

The rivers crested around midday yesterday, the Nehalem River crested at 12.03 and had dropped to 11.43 this morning. The Wilson, which reacts more rapidly, crested at 10.64 and has dropped to 8.39. We have more of these warm, wet, systems expected through the area over the next few day that will again drive up the rivers. We have one today that could give us another half-inch or so of rain, bring breezy conditions, before moving east later today. A stronger, wetter system with tropical origins (Pineapple Express) is expected Saturday into Sunday, with the models still somewhat conflicting on timing and main target zone. The NWS estimates that we could get another 2-3 inches of rain in the Coast Range, and 2-5 inches in the Cascades over the weekend. With the snow level up around 6000’ and the heavy rain potential, there is an increased flood potential for many areas this weekend. I think there is a chance that our rivers could get to bankfull or just above around Sunday. I also think that this will be an event that many other areas will be watching more closely because of their own rivers, from the valley to the Cascades.

Once we make it through this threat, wet and warm will start next week but the models still hint that a ridge of High Pressure will build in the middle of next week to help dry things out though it would also mean cooler conditions.

As we all know, during these heavy rain events where flooding is a potential, tides are a factor, so, I have included the times here for the highest tides using the Garibaldi Tables, for the weekend, and, they have been running above predictions because of the winds.

Saturday Hi 08:27am 8.4
Sunday Hi 09:19am 8.8
Monday Hi 10:09am 9.2

A High Wind Warning for the coastal beaches and headlands has just been issued and is in effect until 1pm today for southerly winds 30-40 gusting to 60.

More heavy rain (flooding) possible for the weekend!

Weather issues keeping me busy. The Wilson River has already crested at 10.64’ and is currently down to 10.4 and falling. The Nehalem River at Foss is cresting right now, at 10.95. Now, that’s the good news. There is always more to the story…and that is…another wet day tomorrow then, as I mentioned in the morning report, we are expecting another strong system Saturday into Sunday. Some of the models are showing this system to be quite moist so there is a potential for us to see periods of moderate to heave rainfall from this system. As the rivers will still be relatively high from this week’s rain and snowmelt, there is still a possibility of flooding Saturday night into Monday. The National Weather Service (NWS) Portland has already issued a Hydrologic Outlook addressing the flooding potential for the weekend that would affect several rivers in Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington, including the Nehalem and Wilson Rivers, which will likely also impact the Kilchis and Trask Rivers. Tonight’s models, and tomorrow’s, should give us a better picture. As experienced in the last storm, the models are not handling these systems as well as some of the earlier ones so hopefully tomorrow will give us a better picture of the expectations. I have a special weather briefing tomorrow afternoon with the NWS so you can expect a morning and afternoon report again tomorrow.

Keeping my finger’s crossed, see ya tomorrow….