Friday, April 23, 2010

Friday, April 23rd.

No, I didn't leave the country or anything, been away at a class. So, here is the weather!

A chilly start this morning with the temperatures running in the mid to upper 30s. Some mainly high clouds moving across the area ahead of the next system that could bring some light rain later this afternoon. The chance of rain continues into the morning Saturday then, high pressure building in once again Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday looks to be sunny, dry and warmer so get the grills out! Monday another front develops and moves in Monday evening and night then the rest of next week should look similar to this week with periods of rain with a nice day thrown in here and there.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

April 14th, more of the same!

A complex set of systems continues to give the models, and us forecasters, problems. The system affecting our weather the rest of the week is a low down in Northern California which will send a surge of clouds and rainshowers up into our area from the south later this evening and tonight. Until then it looks to be a pleasant day with lots of sun and mild temperatures. Tomorrow, maybe some lingering showers in the morning but then drying, more sun, and mild again in the afternoon. We could see another surge of rain from the south Friday. As for the weekend, more of the same it would appear. Sunny and mild, except when one of these surges decides to push through the area again, and this looks to continue into the beginning of next week.

Friday, April 9, 2010

April 9th, Another Chilly Morning

It was chilly this morning and it will be even chiller tomorrow morning but, with clear skies. There were snow flurries in the passes and the temperatures were right at freezing this morning at sunrise. We should see decreasing activity this afternoon with clearing skies overnight then tomorrow, a cold, frosty start but it should warm up nicely under sunny skies and breezy east winds. A low pressure system drifts south along the coast over the weekend then moves east through northern California bringing a threat of showers to the area Saturday night into Sunday. Next week an upper level feature will persist over the area to give us showers, off and on, through the week.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

April 8th, Spring...I mean Snow...

The strong cold front raced through a little after midnight and cool temperatures are now spreading over the area with the breezy northwest winds. Temperatures along the passes have already dropped to or near freezing and snow flurries are falling from the showers as they move across. ODOT reports Slush with 1” of new snow on Hwy 26 at 32 degs, and a trace of snow with flurries and spots of ice on Hwy 6 and 33 degs. We can expect more showers to move across the area today, bringing more snow in the passes, and possibly hail here at sea level. We can still see winds gusting to 25-30 in town and 40-45 along the coast so windchills are in the mid 30s. The high today will only reach near 50 and I think travelers will have at least one more night and morning of Coast Range travel concerns with the snow and ice. Saturday looks to be a fair day, milder temperatures and dry. A low pressure system will drift south along the coast over the weekend before moving into California and possibly drive some showers into our area Sunday. Showers taper off Monday then…the models go all over the place.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

April 7th, Snow in the Passes - Again

A warm front is passing to our north but, still close enough to give us these clouds and patchy light drizzle this morning, otherwise it should be mild and dry for most of the day. The system dropped further south than I had hoped so we may not get that sun I had hoped for. As has been the case for a while now, this is short lived as a strong cold front that will bring in more clouds and rain tonight into tomorrow when it finally pushed through, dropping the temperatures by 10 degrees or more after it passes through. This will be another breezy system as well with westerly winds 15-20 gusting to 35, slightly higher along the coast. After the front pushed through early Thursday we then have the post frontal showers and falling snow levels that will cause more snow in the passes, falling as low as 1000’ at times, especially at night, into Friday morning, expect some patchy ice up there during the early morning hours as well. Here is where forecasting is such an exact science. A low pressure system develops off the coast but is absent of steering so it and its associated weather drifts. Current thinking is it will drift south into California. This would give us better weather for the weekend. After that - the long range shows more cool and unsettled weather for next week...again!

There is the “official” forecast. Now for the wild card. This next front is presently developing rapidly and the models don’t handle that development real well. There are some features about this system that would suggest another low pressure area could develop on the front as it approaches the coast which could change things a little. First, it would give us stronger winds over a longer period, because it would also slow the front down. Right now the front is forecasted to make it through in the morning but if this low develops, the front and the associated cold air would be delayed until the afternoon. Either way the passes could be problematic for some, the difference is, for how long!

Have I confused you sufficiently, if not, I wasn’t doing my job well enough!

Monday, April 5, 2010

April 5th Weather

Might be easier to do it this way - Wednesday should be the best day this week with only a 20% chance of showers, some sun breaks, otherwise...more of the same. Models suggest the weekend might be improving, subject to change without notice!

Friday, April 2, 2010

April 2nd Weather

The cold front continues to move towards the coast this morning. The strongest winds and periods of heavy rain will begin this morning and last until the front pushes through around noon today. Winds are forecasted to reach 30-40 with gust to 65-75 at the beaches and highlands. We can expect more showers after the front and continued breezy the rest of today. This system will also provide more snow in the coastal passes and mountains and travelers should use caution when driving into the valley. ODOT Trip Check currently reflects that the snow pack is breaking up on the roads with slush and there is 2” on the roadside. It also says it is currently snowing hard and continuously right now with a temperature of 31. So, more showers tomorrow then Sunday another system causes more rain then rainshowers which persist into the beginning of next week. The only other area of interest may be the rivers which all stay a couple feet below action stage for this event.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thursday, April 1st, and another strong system is on the way!

If, during the winter, you were wondering where winter was, I think we found it! A few more showers will persist today from the last system while another strong cold front is pushing towards the coast and the rain from this next system should move into the coast late tonight. For now, the passes have patches of ice reported on the roads but that will change over the weekend, to snow! Tomorrow morning, around 6-9am the next cold front will move in giving us heavy rains and strong winds again. We have a Gale Watch and a High Wind Watch starting late tonight and lasting through tomorrow afternoon. This system will give us another 2-4” of rain and winds gusting to near 70 along the beaches with the strongest winds in the morning with the front as it moves through. Once the front does make its way through, the snow level, which had lifted briefly, will once again fall to around 1000’. The NWS may issue a Snow Advisory for the Coast Range and a Winter Storm Warning is likely for the Cascades as a result of the additional snow, along with blowing and drifting snow caused by the strong winds that will persist even there.

So, that gets us through today and tomorrow. Saturday will bring more showers with snow in the hills and mountains, until the next moist system arrives late Saturday into Sunday. Exactly where the associated low moves in will drive who gets the heavier precipitation. Showers persist again, after this system, through Tuesday. The models are mixed right now for after mid week.