Friday, October 29, 2010

More sun today, more rain tomorrow!

A low pressure system off the northern California coast continues to push clouds over the area this morning. Some fog formed this morning signaling weak high pressure building in which will enable more sunshine today. Never fear, it will be short-lived as another approaching system will cause the clouds to return by tomorrow morning, then a threat of rain around noon tomorrow, light at first, then as a trough approaches later tomorrow evening, the rain will intensify and we become a little breezy, wind southwesterly 10-15 gusting to 25. Sunday still a little breezy with some light showers lingering. Starting Monday a weak ridge builds over the area but with a front to the north Monday and Tuesday, a rogue shower could affect the area. The models diverge after that, some say fair weather starting midweek, others show another low moving down the coast with a strong front moving through the area. You’ll just have to pace the floor until Monday to see what future models tell. Temperatures for the period range from the upper 50s to low 60s for highs and mid to upper 40s for lows.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Rain ending tonight, returns on Saturday!

I have had lots of request for good weather that stretch all the way into next week. While I’m in sales, not production, I can at least let you know the news, good and bad.

A low pressure center off the Oregon coast continues to sink south towards California but is still spreading light rain northward across our area. This low will continue to slide southward from the area tonight which will end the rain later tonight into Friday. The next front brings in rain Saturday afternoon which will start as light rain at first then increase into the evening until the front pushes through sometime Saturday night. Showers behind the system will linger into Sunday then the models show a high pressure ridge building in which last through midweek. The National Weather Service leaves showers in the area because there is some doubt that the ridge will be strong enough to hold off the next system, and, exactly when the ridge will break down. We will have one more day to look at it before the weekend. Temperatures for the period, highs 55-60 and lows 45-50.


Tuesday, October 26, 2010

More showers, possible hain and thunderstorms

Showers with periods of brief heavy rain and possible hail, and an occasional thunderstorm are forecasted again today as a minor disturbance moves across. The activity will decrease overnight as high pressure builds in briefly but could cause patches of dense fog around daybreak then Wednesday will be dry except a system will move to our south so some rain may sneak in Wednesday night. After that, the active weather pattern continues with systems moving over or close to the area Thursday night/Saturday morning, another Saturday afternoon or night, and a third Sunday night. The extended models show more in store for Monday and Tuesday. As for NWS alerts, there is still a High Surf Advisory until 10am, a Small Craft Advisory until 5pm, and the Cascades are still under a Winter Storm Warning until 11am today.


Monday, October 25, 2010

"Fun" weekend and more showers today into tomorrow!

Yesterday was interesting, high winds, gusting to 61 in Garibaldi and 50 in Pacific City, 2-3 inches of rain fell locally over the weekend, thunderstorms, record daily rainfall in Portland (1.06) and Troutdale (1.58) and, further east, a Winter Storm Warning for the Cascade snow already being measured in feet in some areas.

Today, a strong westerly flow will continue to stream in moisture which is combining with the unstable air aloft to generate showers and a chance of more thunderstorms. Another disturbance moves through tonight and early Tuesday to enhance the shower activity then, Tuesday afternoon the activity slowly decreases and Wednesday a ridge builds in briefly to dry things out though we can expect some morning fog. Thursday a weak system brings in more rain then a trough sets up offshore to help keep a threat of rain in the forecast until the next front due this weekend.

Most of the Advisories, Watches and Warning in our area have been canceled or allowed to expire except the High Surf Warning which is still in effect until 6pm today for large swells, 25-30’ this morning, peaking at 30-35’ before dropping to 25-30’ again this afternoon and slowly diminishing to 20’ by Tuesday.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Strong winds and heavy rain for the weekend!

The lull before the storm, which is expected later tonight, and another one Saturday night. We could still see some spotty showers today before the next stronger system brings us more rain tonight into tomorrow morning. This system will mainly bring some rain, probable around a half an inch. The third and strongest of the systems impacts the coast Saturday night bringing strong winds and areas of heavy rain. This system has the potential to bring high winds to the beaches tomorrow night, gusting to at least 65 mph, and dumping 1-3” of rain into Sunday morning. Another wave will bring another dose of potentially heavy rain (another 1-3”) Sunday night into Monday morning, and, if you are planning travel across the Cascades you need to be prepared for tumbling snow levels with significant snow amounts expected down to near pass level (3,500-4,000’) by late Sunday afternoon and night. Once we get past all this, it appears a ridge may dry thing up, briefly, around the middle of next week.

So, with all this bad weather the National Weather Service has issued the following Advisories, Watches and Warnings:

High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night near the beaches and highlands for potential wind gust to 65 mph.

Gale Warning for the coastal waters from 6pm this evening until 5pm Saturday.

Storm Watch for the same waters from Saturday afternoon thru Sunday morning.

High Surf Advisory has not been issued (yet).

Coastal Flood Watch is being evaluated due to the expected higher tides and surf.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

The sun is gone!

We can say goodbye to the sun for a while, the high pressure that provided the nice weather for the last week has moved on to the east and has been replaced by a weak front off the coast that will bring us a chance of light precipitation later tonight into Friday morning. We get a brief break before a stronger system gives us more rain Friday night into Saturday. The system after that, expected later Saturday into Sunday, will be the one that is being fueled by tropical moisture and a strong upper level jet stream. This one has the potential for moderate to occasionally heavy rain and strong, gusty, southerly winds, especially along the coast. The long range models keep the strong jet over the top of us for much of next week so I would expect showers the beginning of the week with the possibility of other embedded disturbances causing a threat of showers, off and on, through at least midweek. Beginning Sunday the snow level is expected to drop down to around 4,000’ with significant snow expected in the Cascades down to near pass levels.


Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wet and Windy Weekend Expected

A significant change to wet and windy expected for the weekend. The ridge of high pressure that has provided us this great weather for the last few days will move eastward today as a trough sets up off the coast tonight, allowing several systems to affect our weather starting tomorrow night. The first system, starting tomorrow night into Friday, will bring some rain and wind but should be relatively weak. The next system comes Saturday morning in the form of a warm front and will bring somewhat heavier rains and increasing winds. Saturday afternoon a stronger system develops to our northwest and will have tapped moisture from a tropical system currently affecting China. When this system begins pushed ashore Saturday night it could bring moderate to heavy rain and winds to the coast. This system will also drop the snow level to below the Cascade Pass level, possibly as low as 3,500-4,000’. This could be the first significant snowfall for the higher elevations beginning late Sunday into Monday. For us, it looks like we can expect breezy conditions with 3-5” of rain for the weekend.


Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Two more nice days, then rain thru the weekend!

Ahhh…another clear, crisp Autumn morning in Tillamook County. The patchy morning fog has dissipated and we are left with some high cirrus clouds moving through the area. We look to enjoy one more of these before the high pressure responsible for the excellent weather moves out and an upper level trough sets up off the coast. Thursday a slight rain threat develops and represents the first of several systems to affect our weather into next week. A couple stronger systems move over the area during the weekend which could bring significant rainfall and breezy conditions starting Friday evening or early Saturday morning. Once the rain starts it could be with us through the start of next week.


Monday, October 11, 2010

Rainy weekend but now some sun!

A couple decent storms over the weekend brought plenty of rain. The real winners were up in Washington where Cougar received 7.96 inches of rain. Here in Oregon, Astoria won with 3.42 inches, Seaside received 3.06, and Tillamook, 2.07. Now that those systems are out of the way we will enjoy some high pressure which is helping to give us some fog today and tomorrow which will burn off by noon leaving us with plenty of sunshine and some east winds. Wednesday night conditions shift again ahead of the next system. Southerly winds will push the marine clouds up the coast and Thursday we become mostly cloudy again with a chance of some drizzle. The main energy from the next system should pass us to the north into Washington and Canada though we may still see some intermittent periods of some light precipitation anytime between Friday and Sunday.

The only other important information is…no significant weather will be allow this week as I will be away at a conference from tomorrow through Thursday. Hold all weather, and calls, until Friday…


Friday, October 8, 2010

Series of systems expected this weekend!

Rainy and breezy today, tomorrow, and Sunday. The satellite picture clearly shows the developing cold front racing towards the coast. The good news is the main core of energy appears headed for Washington/Canada though we will still see some significant winds and rain. This is only the first in a series of storms to affect our area through the weekend. We can expect another storm Saturday and another storm Sunday with occasional periods of moderate rain which will give us storm totals of between 2-4 inches for the weekend. Once the last storm moves out of the area on Sunday, the cold air aloft will cause showers which also diminish overnight into Monday. The winds will increase this afternoon and evening, becoming southerly 15-20 gusting to 35, a little higher as each system moves through, especially along the beaches that could see gust to 45-50 as the systems themselves cross. For Columbus Day, partly sunny during the day and mostly cloudy that night, high around 62, low near 48. Expect another trough to bring another threat of rain around the middle of next week.


Thursday, October 7, 2010

Heavy rains and winds expected

The high pressure has weakened and moved on out and a trough has set up which has allowed the cooler marine layer and associated clouds to roll back in. Starting tonight, I guess we’ll say summer is officially over and by tomorrow we see the first in a series of systems move through that will give us plenty of rain and winds all weekend, and, snow in the Cascades! The sequence looks something like this, what is left of a front brushed the coast Friday is evening, then a warm front passed through tonight, followed by a wet and windy cold front through early morning Saturday, but then slows down so the rain will hang around most of the day, then, a shot of cold air surges through Saturday night into Sunday causing more rain. After ALL that, a high pressure ridge builds in enough to push most of the weather north of the area though there is still a slight chance of a shower here and there.

Now let’s talk a little about that Friday/Saturday coastal weather. First, we can expect several inches of rain for the event, with the heaviest rain occurring late Friday into Saturday morning. The rivers are quite low and will handle the rain without any concern but know that if you are traveling you need to slow down so add extra time to your plans and keep your headlights on. Next the winds, the heaviest of these will occur Friday night into Saturday morning as well. We can expect southerly winds 15-25 gusting to 35, increasing with the front as it pushes through, 25-30 gusting to 40-45 along the beaches. The National Weather Service has already issued a Gale Watch for the coastal water from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning which means some significant seas as well with combined sea building to 15’ starting Friday night into at least Monday. Finally, yes, they are talking snow in the Cascades on Monday but us, temperatures 55-60 for highs Saturday and Sunday, lows 42-47 Sunday and Monday nights.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Week of 10-4-10 (already!)

We have what’s left of a weak front moving ashore at the WA/OR border this morning though there does not appear to be much precipitation associated with the front. Still some patchy fog out there, and we can expect increased cloudiness as the weak front pushes through around noon-ish, maybe a light shower as it interacts with the coastline and mountains. A ridge begins building in tomorrow so expect some sun breaks in the afternoon, breezy also, winds northerly to start, 8-12 gusting to 20 but shifting to northeasterly overnight 10-15 gusting to 25. With the high pressure building, we can expect warmer conditions Wednesday with a high in the low 70s. The models show an onshore flow returning Thursday which would bring back the clouds and cooler air, then unsettled weather to bring a chance of rain through the weekend.


Friday, October 1, 2010

TGIF October 1st.

We still have an upper level high pressure ridge over the area though it is weaker today, allowing a weak disturbance to move across. This is giving us a southwesterly flow that has pushed in the cooler marine layer, and clouds, that will hang around all day. The high pressure will move east tomorrow as a trough pushes towards the area and by tomorrow night, late, we have a 20% chance of rain that gradually increases to 40% by Sunday morning, then a weak front pushed through making rain likely Sunday night into Monday morning. The National Weather Service forecast finally mentions snow for the first time also, over in the Cascades and the Willamette Pass, though not much accumulation is expected. After that, nice (dry and warm) weather appears to return mid week lasting through at least Friday.