Monday, September 27, 2010

Better weather comin...

A southwest flow with some subtropical moisture today means a cloudy, drizzly, foggy morning followed by a mostly cloudy day. Tomorrow high pressure starts to build in so we should see more sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Thursday and Friday the systems pass off to our north thanks to the high pressure which gives us partly cloudy skies both days then starting Saturday all the models all go off into different directions. For now we’ll go with an increased onshore flow which would push in the clouds as an upper level trough approaches the coast, which also gives us a slight chance of rain. Temperatures this week will run in the upper 60s for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for lows.


Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Variable weather pattern, Winter weather coming

The patchy morning fog has burned off as one weak disturbance passes to the north, then, another will pass to our south tomorrow as high pressure builds over our area. So tomorrow will be similar to today then Thursday a weak frontal system ups our rain chances before another ridge builds in Friday and Saturday pushing the temperatures up into the low 60s. Saturday night another frontal system threatens a chance of rain into Monday though the models are not real clear on this.

I have had several folks ask about this fall and winters weather expectations. Well, it isn’t the best of news, potentially. It appears we are in for a relatively strong La Nina year in the equatorial region which continues to strengthen. La Nina is a condition in the equatorial Pacific where the waters are unusually cold, the opposite of El Nino. La Nina conditions are characterized by warmer than normal temperatures in the southeast US and colder than normal temperatures in the northwest, between October and to March time frame. It is also characterized by higher than normal precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest while it typically favors lesser precipitation in the southwest, and the mid and lower Mississippi River Valley. While this is all about averages, I will point out the last La Nina years were the winter of 2007/08.


Monday, September 20, 2010

Record Rain and Temperatures.

Several records were set over in the valley this weekend. A couple places set records for high minimum temperatures overnight and a few new records were set for 24 hour rainfall totals. Fortunately, none were in our area. As for this week’s weather, more showers today due to an upper level trough hanging over the area. Tomorrow and Wednesday it will be dryer but expect some morning fog which burns off around 11am daily, leaving a few high clouds racing across the area. The next front brings another shot of rain to the coast around Thursday before a drying/warming trend develops on Friday and Saturday. For now it looks like the next shot of rain approaches Sunday, subject to change without notice!


Friday, September 17, 2010

Another 1-2" of Rain Expected

Rain, heavy at times today. Looking at the radar shows rain, some heavy, moving northeast towards the area, stretching from our area southwest off the radar scope west of northern California, so, we will see rain for much of the day, in fact, we can expect another 1-2 inches today. All this compliments of a stalled front over our area, along with several disturbances riding along the front the rest of day. Things will calm down some overnight before cranking back up again later tomorrow. Sunday the rain becomes more showery, and lighter into Monday then things start to dry out into midweek, finally!


Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fall preview!

A preview of things to come…Fall! It appears the front has gone stationary to our north with a band of rain and showers racing to the northeast along the line which is over the Astoria area at this time. So, we will see more rain today, adding to the 1-2” we have already received from the system. It looks like a disturbance will develop on the front that will push the front to the north some today but, the front will drop back to the south again tomorrow before going stationary once again. Another stronger disturbance will develop on the front tomorrow afternoon and evening providing up to another 1-3” of rain through Saturday, depending on exactly where the disturbance hits the coast. The main dynamic in this system is the upper level low pressure system that has sat over the northeast pacific for the past few days. This is forecasted to open up and become a trough of low pressure over the weekend then move inland on Sunday and cause more showers. The models are mixed for beginning of next week so for now we’ll go with partly sunny days and mostly cloudy nights with a slight chance of showers daily through midweek.

Drive Safe and turn your headlights on!


Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Rain on the way!

An approaching front signals rain for the area today. A look at the radar shows rain echos about 60 miles off the coast moving northeast. The front itself should make it through the area this evening then an upper level low pressure system gets cutoff and remains over the northeast Pacific for the next several days allowing disturbances to rotate up across the area until Friday, when the upper level feature begins to move east and across the region this weekend and yep…more rain or rain showers. As for next week, the models are suggesting cool but dry to start.


Monday, September 13, 2010

What a great weekend, if we can burn off these clouds we should be able to squeeze out a couple more before the rain returns. The clouds are courtesy of a weak onshore flow, and are expected to burn off before noon with high pressure building in again. Midweek a front brings the threat of rain, especially later Wednesday into Wednesday night as the front move through. Now the bad news, a low pressure system is expected hang to our northwest for a while which will allow several more frontal systems to affect our weather through the end of the week and into the beginning of next week.

You probably heard about all the accidents that closed Hwy 6 and Hwy 101 for hours over the weekend. The good news is I was doing computer work each time, monitoring the radio so was able to send out the information immediately using the new alert notification system Nixle. Nixle is a new FREE service that allows me to send out up-to-date, secure, information affecting the county by e-mail and cellphone text messaging. To sign up, goto and create an account. The nice thing is you can customize your alerts to your city, zip code, or county, the choice is yours!


Thursday, September 9, 2010

Thursday Cloudy Forecast

First, thanks to all that attended the Preparedness Workshop last night. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did and that you learned something to help you further your preparedness goals.

As for the weather, the slow moving upper level low pressure system is moving off to the east today though another disturbance is rotating around the low, and across our area which is giving us the light showers we see this morning. This activity will diminish later today, becoming widely scattered under mostly cloudy skies as a weak ridge of high pressure builds so maybe some drying for the start of the weekend. The models are now starting to show the ridging holding through the start of next week so I will continue to watch this but it would mean less rain next week. Temperatures should continue to run in the mid 60s for highs and the mid to upper 40s for lows.


Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Wednesday, Sept 8th

More rain and rainshowers today thanks to an upper level low pressure system dropping over the area. Currently there is a band of moderate rain moving south through the Cannon Beach area so we can expect that to affect the area over the next few hours. The shower activity will diminish tonight to about a 20% chance which last until the low pressure system finally pushes off to the east and a weak high pressure system dries us off for Friday. The long range models still show another low pressure system moving in from the northwest this weekend so, more onshore flow and a slight chance of showers for the start of next week. Looks like we are stuck in the pattern of a couple days of showers, a better day or two before the next system brings another threat of rain. And NO, fall doesn’t start until the 22nd! We are still in summer????


Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Week of 9-7-10.

We had a relatively good weather weekend for all the special events taking place all around the county. Things clouded up yesterday and a weak cold front went through last night. Next we have an upper level low sagging down over the area which will help generate some showers and possible even a thunderstorm today. This system will be slow to leave so showers stay in the forecast for the next couple days. The long range models show other weak disturbances passing through that could give us a threat of showers later in the week and weekend. So, overall, cool, showers at times, with some dry periods tossed in here and there.

And a reminder, it's the first day of school so leave a little early and take your time!

Friday, September 3, 2010

TGIF, Sept 3rd

It looks like we will squeeze out one more nice day before the fall weather that we had ALL summer returns. Warm and dry today, high around 70, then the clouds move in tonight as the westerly winds push in the cooler marine air once more, and a disturbance moves through giving us a slight chance of some of that light precipitation late tonight into early tomorrow morning. After that we will be cooler, and between systems, the next one expected to give us another slight shot of rain late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. As for next week, look for the active weather to continue, with periods of rain possible as weak systems move through the area, this all the models agree with, they just have issues on exactly when.