Thursday, December 30, 2010

Cold with icy/foggy roads!

An interesting drive to work for many this morning. Icy roads in many places, patches of fog, all this AFTER you defrost your windshield and/or pry open your frozen car door. There have already been a couple accidents in the area so please, leave early and drive slow and cautiously this morning. If you commute over to the Portland area, ODOT reports black ice on Hwy 26 and 6, and the NWS advises there is freezing fog over in the Hillsboro, Portland, Vancouver, Oregon City areas. The State Police tell of patchy black Ice on I-5 between Portland and Wilsonville. While we are down near 30, they are in the 20s over there. The temperature will slowly rise to near 40 today so I don’t see conditions improving much across the summit areas today before we go down below freezing again tonight. Today and tomorrow should be sunny, but cool, and with clear skies again tonight, the temperature will fall below freezing and into the upper 20s. With the winds increasing to 10-15 gusting to 20 tonight, the windchill temperatures will make it feel like the teens! Sunday some clouds start to return ahead of an upper level disturbance moving down from the north that could bring some rain later Sunday. After that we might squeeze out a couple more nice days before another strong system affects the area.

The County Road department advises Bayocean Rd was reopened yesterday and Foss Rd is open at MP6, but still restricted to one lane at the slide area. They are also still clearing up several other small rock slides in various spots so be extra careful near these working roadcrews, especially with the slick roads!

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Cold, rainy and snowy today, improving tomorrow!

Several reports of snow on Hwy 101 from South County this morning and for sure there is snow on the passes above 700’. ODOT’s Tripcheck reports 1” of new snow with 2-3” on the roadside, and snow on the roads of both Hwy 6 and 26. Here at the office we had a shower move through earlier that left a white coating of hail on the ground and vehicles, and, there is more falling right now. All this to say, please, please drive safe and use extreme caution, take your time so you can arrive safely!

So, we can expect showers to move through today, with the snow level up around 600’ which will rise some today to about 1000’ before dropping down to at least 500’ again tonight. The low tonight is expected to be down near freezing so…if we do get a heavier shower overnight it could drag the snow level lower. It will be breezy today also, winds northwest 15-20 gusting to 25, so, it will feel much cooler than it is. Right now the temperatures are running around 38, which puts the wind chill at about 28!

The showers will start decreasing this afternoon as cool high pressure start to build in then cool dry weather will continue starting tomorrow into the weekend. We can expect daytime highs in the mid 40s and lows slowly warming into the mid 30s into the New Year. The next shot at rain starts the beginning of next week with significant rain expected again by Tuesday.

County Roads

The Public Works Director, Liane Welch, reports that Bayocean Rd, MP1, and Foss Rd, MP6 are still closed due to slides but they hope to have at least 1 lane open in the next few hours. She reports her crews are also hard at work dealing with several other small rockslides throughout the county and asks that drivers please drive slow and use caution when driving near any road crews, here or anywhere else!

She also reminds us that should the temperature drop to near freezing, or below, tonight, she has limited personnel to sand the many roads from North County to South County so PLEASE be cautious for black ice during the night and early morning hours wherever you drive!

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Cold front still coming...possible snow!

Lots of rain overnight, some areas have reporting 3-5” which has cause several issues this morning, Public Works reports they have been very active most of the night. As I write this, Miami Foley road has water covering both lanes at MP1, as does North Fork Rd., Foss Rd had a land slide and the road is closed, other land slides include Resort Dr, MP 2 partially blocking, and others are happening but things are very dynamic right now, changing moment by moment as they get cleared and others happen.

The heavy rains have also affected the rivers this morning, last reading the Nehalem was at 11.08 and cresting but forecasted to rise to 13.04’ later this morning, Action is 12.0 and Flood is 14.0. The Wilson River was at 9.69 (and cresting) and forecasted to crest at 11.26’ later this morning, Action is 10.5 and Flood is 12.0’. Obviously I will be monitoring this closely but my thinking is the rivers levels will fall until the next batch of rain then rise again briefly, but be below forecasted levels and below Action Stage.

More wet and breezy today as the cold front continues to develop and approach the coast. Currently the freezing level is near 4000’ and our temperatures are running in upper 40s across the area with light rain. We can expect another burst of rain as the front pushes through but the satellite picture suggest to me that the main surge of moisture and winds will pass us to the south. Once the front get through later today or tonight, the temperatures will start to fall until reaching a low of 35 by early morning. More showers are expected tomorrow with the snow level down near 500’ then rising in the afternoon to maybe 1000’ before falling again in the evening and we could see a rain/snow mix after 4pm, or snow overnight, with any remaining showers but little to no accumulation is expected. Wednesday night and Thursday night the lows will be near freezing but there is a decreasing chance of showers into Thursday and Friday. New Years Day we could get some sun breaks, high near 47, low near 35 as high pressure builds in though we will still need to watch a system forecasted to move into California next Friday into the weekend.

Monday, December 27, 2010

Moe Low Snow Expected!

We had showers moving across the area this morning but the rain from the next system is already moving onshore. As of 7am this morning, ODOT was still reporting snow flurries up at the higher passes though this should turn over to rain soon as the snow level will temporarily rise today and this evening. Later this evening we can expect some moderate, occasionally heavy rain to develop as the front itself works its way through and the usual winds, gusting to 35 inland and 55 along the coast. While the rivers will surge up about 3’, they will still crest several feet below Action Stage. After the front goes through tonight we will continue to have showers into tomorrow when the colder air settles in causing an increase in showers which will turn to snow in the Coast Range (1-3”) as the snow level drops to between 500-1000’ by tomorrow evening. The showers will continue into Wednesday with the snow level hovering down around 500’ still (another 1-3”), possible even lower over in the valley with colder air spilling in through the Gorge. Thursday we should see decreasing shower activity but with the lower snow levels, snow showers are still possible in the passes Thursday morning. High pressure is expected to build in by Thursday afternoon to help dry things up a bit through Sunday.

Advisories, Watches and Warnings

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon today when a Gale Warning takes effect thru 6am Tuesday.

The Winter Weather Advisory and High Wind Watch for the coast and Coast Range has expired. The High Wind Watch may be reissued later today as the winds are expected to get close to warning criteria and the previous Winter Weather Advisory has expired but I would expect another to be issued later this evening for tomorrow’s expected snowfall activity.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Rainy Christmas Forecast

Showers off and on all day with some sun peeking through every now and then, but the clouds return overnight and by tomorrow morning we will be cloudy and rainy as the next warm front slowly makes its way east towards the coast. By Friday the associated cold front should be inching towards the coast but won’t make it thru until Christmas Day. It appears the main energy of this system will be aimed at rain-soaked California again but we should still see moderate amounts of rainfall in our area. The front will be driven by a broad area of low pressure sitting up over the northeast Pacific, just like last week and the week before. What this means for us is – after Christmas we will be stuck in the same ol’ pattern of disturbances rotating under the low and over the area causing rainshowers and periods of rain for much of next week. Temperatures for the rest of the week, highs near 50, lows near 40, slightly cooler temperatures expected for next week and the snow level is up above 3,000’.

Advisories, Watches, and Warnings:

Small Craft Advisory in effect now thru 1am Thursday.
Gale Warning from 1am Thursday thru 10am Thursday
Storm Watch from Thursday morning thru Friday afternoon.

ODOT’s TripCheck shows intermittent rainshowers but it has removed the patchy ice information it had posted for Hwy 6 and 26 earlier this morning.


Tuesday, December 21, 2010

The forecast for the first day of winter!

We still have a few light showers racing to the northeast across the area but I am still hopeful that we could see some sun breaks today, even if seen through some thin high clouds. Another trough of low pressure will move across tonight, giving us another shot of rain overnight into tomorrow morning. This will again cause strong, cold winds through the Gorge area into the Portland/Vancouver area similar to the conditions experienced last Friday so that area could see a brief period of snow or rain/snow mix Wednesday morning. So for us, on Wednesday, more showers, maybe some sun breaks as another of those large, broad low pressure areas sets up over the northeast Pacific. We can expect this will cause more disturbances to rotate under the low and over our area, the first of which, a slow moving front, will be affecting our weather late Wednesday or early Thursday into Friday with periods of moderate rain through the weekend and possibly into next week. The cool, active pattern continues!

By the way, today is the first day of winter, the Winter Solstice. Today is the shorted day of the year and tonight the longest night, from this day on the days get longer each day through the spring.


Monday, December 20, 2010

Wild Weather Weekend Continues

Wild weather weekend, lightening took out a Verizon cellphone tower, 8” of snow to start the weekend over the Wilson River Summit, sun, rain, winds, we had it all. We will have, and are having more showers today, and, there has been sporadic lightening detected in some of the showers offshore so one of these could make it onshore today though they appear to weaken as they get nearer to shore. Another low pressure system will develop off our coast tomorrow so we can expect more showers to start then steady rain by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Thursday another cold front will slowly approach the coast so more rain is likely then a large low pressure system will set up over the northeast Pacific again which means periods of rain as disturbances rotate under the system and across the area from Friday, through the weekend, and, into next week. Snow levels will continue to be in the 1,500 to 3,000 range.

For those that may have travel plans that include the Columbia Gorge and Basin areas this week and weekend, little will change there, more snow is expected and with a cold easterly wind setting up, more cold air will spill into the Portland/Vancouver area by Wednesday so they could see another Rain/Snow mix with conditions similar to the end of last week, and that could include the icy roads and strong winds that downed trees and knocked out power in that area. Checking weather and road conditions prior to your travels is highly recommended. As an example, TripCheck this morning at around 7am was reporting Hwy 26 had slush and snow pack breaking up with a trace of new snow and 4” of snow roadside at 30 degrees, Hwy 6 was the same except 32 degrees and 6” roadside.


Friday, December 17, 2010


I see blue sky now as high pressure moves across the area. The higher passes are still reporting temperatures below freezing so if you have travel plans into the valley, watch for patches of black ice as you cross the area of the summit on Highways 6 and 26. They also have a dense fog advisory for the valley until 10am this morning. As for us, the high pressure will move east today as a large area of low pressure continues to develop in the northeast Pacific which will allow disturbances to rotate under the low and into our area through the weekend and into next week. The next disturbance will move in tonight and tomorrow morning and could bring snow to the upper levels of the passes once again by tomorrow morning. There is also some concern that with the cold air moving into the valley from the Gorge area that some of the low elevation snow expected in the Columbia River Gorge area tomorrow morning may make it into the Portland/Vancouver area. Should the Portland/Vancouver area get the morning snow or rain/snow mix, it will turn over to all rain in the afternoon. If you are traveling through the Gorge area, it will likely be snow all day Saturday. If you are traveling through those areas, watch the weather carefully before you go and be careful.

Well, that takes care of today and Saturday morning…starting Saturday afternoon, watch for rainshowers and possible thunderstorms again through Sunday. As for next week, more unsettled weather as disturbances continue to rotate under the low and through our area for most of next week.

After the Aumsville Tornado this week, I did a little research…it appears Tillamook had a F1 tornado (86-110mph winds) touch down at 9:30pm, December 12, 1975 that stayed on the ground for approximately 2 miles and caused considerable damage. It reportedly passed by KTIL radio which recorded 90 mph winds as it passed. Overall, from what I could find, Oregon has an average of 2 tornados a year, putting us about 47th in the nation, Texas leads the race with over a hundred, followed by Oklahoma, Florida and Kansas. Also, you’ve heard much talk about the Fujita Scale (also known as the Fujita-Pearson Scale) this week. This is determined after examining several factors related to observed types and extents of damage. Here is a little about that scale.

EF0 weak 65-85 Gale
EF1 weak 86-110 Moderate
EF2 strong 111-135 Significant
EF3 strong 136-165 Severe
EF4 violent 166-200 Devastating
EF5 violent > 200 Incredible


Thursday, December 16, 2010

Snow least over in the valley and Gorge, maybe!

I can only find some widely scattered, light, rainshowers on the radar this morning, all offshore. One may eventually reach the coast so about a 30% chance of catching one this morning. We actually have weak high pressure building over us today so we could catch a little sun with partly cloudy skies this afternoon before a weak disturbance brings more clouds and a chance of some light showers overnight. A large low pressure system will develop over the northeast Pacific tomorrow which will cause disturbances to rotate through the area, with one expected late Friday night into Saturday. It looks like an easterly flow will set up through the Gorge area over the weekend, like is did a couple weeks ago when they had ice and snow issues. If you have travel plans through that area this weekend or next week, go to and review conditions before you leave. So the long range forecast, more unsettled weather as this large low pressure area will push disturbances and fronts through the area for much of next week. An easy extended forecast, cloudy and cool with periods of rain until….with highs 40-45 and lows 35-40.

For anyone that might be interested, I set myself up with a Facebook page, Gordon’s Tillamook Weather Center, this is apart and separate from my normal EM job, though somewhat related. I will post important Tillamook County weather information there, and you can to. This will be “our” page to help keep us all informed and potentially – safe! If you see or experience some significant weather, share it. Have a weather related question…I MIGHT have an answer…

Stay tuned for tomorrow's issue as snow may be effecting your weekend travel plans...I'll try to remember to post it once I write it... :-)


Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Wild, wild weather!

Quite and interesting weather day yesterday. We had a couple bouts of severe weather, the first in the early morning hours caused wind gusts along the coast of over 70mph. One strong cell that came ashore in Lincoln City took the roof off the Sea Horse Condo Resorts and tossed it nearly a block away. We had numerous showers with small hail, then the tornado around noon over in Aumsville. As you may have heard, this was an F2 with estimated winds at 110-120mph. There were reportedly 50 structures damaged, 30 or more trees blown over or snapped, five sheds, 2 semis overturned, and two injuries. It appears the tornado skipped along a path about 5 miles long and did damage up to 150 yards wide in it’s path. Later in the afternoon the National Weather Service reported a water spout west of Pacific City but the only report I received was from a resident that called about dime to nickel size hail.

So, we can expect more showers today and this evening but not as strong as yesterdays though small hail is still likely at times along with gusty winds. We see fewer showers tomorrow then the models continue to show a low pressure system developing in the northeast Pacific Thursday into Friday and pumping disturbances over the area from time to time, all weekend and into the start of next week. And as for the temperatures, afternoon high 45-50, morning lows 35-40.

For anyone traveling over the higher passes in the next few days, look at ODOT’s Trip Check webpage before you go, this mornings reports advised the temperature was 32 with show flurries and about an inch of snow on the side of the road with slush on the road for both Hwy 6 and Hwy 26. The temperature was 33 down on Hwy 18. I would expect the snow level to lift some today, maybe up to 2000’ but dropping back down to 1500 during the nighttime hours. We could see an additional 3” of snow, somewhere between 1500-2000’ and above thru tomorrow.

Finally, all the rivers in Tillamook County are below Flood or Action Stage and continue to fall and this trend is forecasted to continue into next week.


Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Showers and what....snow?

A strong and cold – Cold Front raced through early this morning and now the snow level will begin dropping. Currently it is up around 3,000’ falling to 2,500’ by late morning then down to 1,500’ by around sunset. As a result of the post frontal showers expected today and tomorrow, combined with the lowering snow levels, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until midnight tonight for the North and Central Oregon Coast Range and a Winter Storm Warning for the Cascades. Depending on how quick and low the snow level drops, and how the showers activity develops, we could actually see a Winter Storm Warning for parts of the Coast Range late today and tonight. So, more showers today with a possible thunderstorm or two which could give us some small hail and brief gusty winds with heavy downpours, snow developing in the higher elevations, more showers tomorrow then it looks like cool High Pressure will build in Thursday to ease the shower threat, then, a Low Pressure system develops off the coast Friday to push in more rain, off and on, lasting into the beginning of next week. Continued cool, highs in the mid to upper 40s, and lows near 40.

The rivers, which had been falling nicely after our weekend issues, showed a slight and brief increase from the heavy morning rains but all have resumed their downward trends.


Sunday, December 12, 2010

Round Two, Rivers to rise again!

Yesterday was round one, we had 1-1 1/2 inches of rain locally, Lee's Camp saw 4.1 inches which is actually a little less than expected. The rivers responded accordingly, the Wilson River crested about 10 last night at 9.92' and the Nehalem River at 11.92'. This morning we will see round two as the associated cold front moves thru the area bringing another round of heavy rain. This will drive the rivers up again, both expected to crest late Monday morning, the Wilson at 10.2 (Flood is 12') and the Nehalem at 13.32 (Flood is 14'). The Flood Watch remains in effect until Monday Morning also.

The winds picked up again overnight and are currently quite gusty along the coast and inland. I have winds southwesterly 15-20 gusting to 30, Pacific City is 26 gusting to 46 and Lincoln City is 14 gusting to 45. I found gust to 70 up on Mt. Hebo and a gust to 55 on Cape Meares. As a result the National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning until 1pm today.

Radar show the rain and the associated cold front has pushed south of Astoria and is now approaching the Manzanita area. This event will add another 1-3 inches to the, already impressive rainfall totals and another trough will give us another shot of rain Tuesday.

As for the rest of the week, the active pattern will continue so rain off and on, the next thing to watch is the snow levels which should be dropping all week as we also transition back into a cooler pattern also.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Special Weather Update

Currently it cloudy and rainy, winds less than 10mph in most areas and the temperatures are running in the mid-40s. The latest river readings show the Nehalem River level is currently at 9.8 and falling gradually, the forecasted crest is 15.59' on early Sunday morning, flood stage is 14'. The Wilson river level is 6.2 with a slight rise, its forecasted crest is around midnight tonight at 11.94, flood stage is 12'. A Flood Watch has been issues for all of Northwest Oregon from this afternoon thru Monday morning. We will all need to keep a close eye on this as the levels continue to change with each forecast and the forecasted rainfall can vary with actual observed amounts.

Today's forecast, continued cloudy and rainy, that rain heavy at times. Looking at the radar, satellite and other sources, it now appears the warm front is moving northward faster than the models suggested which would decrease the amount of rain we get ad thus limit the flood potential. I caution though, it is still early in the game. Winds are relatively light thru the county though they are expected to increase this afternoon, especially along the coast, becoming southerly 30-40 gusting to 60-65 at the beaches and headlands. There is a High Wind Warning from 1pm today thru noon Sunday.

Tomorrow, more clouds and rain, breezy still with the associated cold front as it moves through so yes, we will have another shot of moderate rain and wind though not as much s with the warm front today.

Monday on - continued cloudy with occasional periods of rain, highs 45-50, and lows 35-40.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Flood Watch Issued for TIllamook County

We have a break now which will allow the rivers to recede some before the abundant rainfall starts tomorrow. Little has changed in the forecast except some of the models now show the Warm Front dropping south again Sunday morning to give us another shot of the moderate to heavy rain before the cold front pushes thru Monday. The National Weather Service is still calling for 3-6” in our area Saturday with a storm total for the period Saturday morning thru Monday night of 6-10”. The further north you go during this event, the worse the flooding potential will be. River forecast remain the same for now with the Nehalem and Wilson Rivers projected to crest early morning Sunday at less that a foot above flood stage. Winds for this event are forecasted to be, dare I use the term “average”, gusting to between 45-55 on the coast and 20-30 inland.

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River Forecast goes above Flood Stage Saturday

Less shower activity today and even some breaks in the clouds so we will see that sun thing. Tomorrow morning things will rapidly change, starting with the increasing winds from the southwest 10-15 gusting to 25 as a strong and moist warm front approaches the area from the south. The rainfall amounts and the winds will increase quickly as the front nears with the heaviest of the rainfall moving north of the area by early Sunday morning. After a little break the front will drop southward again Sunday afternoon or evening and bring another round of moderate to occasionally heavy rain then late Monday night or early Tuesday morning the associated Cold Front will push thru bringing…more rain! After that, more unsettled weather off and on the rest of the week and weekend.

Now let’s talk hydrology, nice big word. Yes, flooding is a possibility this weekend. The concern is the 2-5 inches of rain expected could turn into even more with a slight shift in the system. All the models agree that Saturday will be a very wet day, where they differ are in some of the important details like exact timing and location. Right now it looks like the hose will be pointed toward Washington but having said that, it still looks like we will get enough precipitation to push our rivers up sharply Saturday night into Sunday. Today’s river forecast reflects that they (National Weather Service Portland, River Forecast Section) expect the Nehalem to crest around 9am Sunday at just above flood stage (14.77’, flood is 14’) and the Wilson to crest just above flood stage around 1am Sunday (12.47, flood is 12). If this trend continues, I would expect the NWS to issue a Flood Watch for those rivers later today.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Weekend Update

Just had a briefing with the National Weather Service (NWS) and for today, right now, it’s looking like this:

Saturday a Warm Front will approach us from the Southwest during the day, bringing with it much rain and some wind. This moisture field is currently pushing northeast of Hawaii and will continue to develop as it approaches the coast. The Warm Front itself will push thru late Saturday and we are looking at rainfall totals between 3-6”, even the valley may see 1-3” and there are flooding concerns there too. Sunday we have a break between systems then Monday we get another 1-3” with the Cold Front as it pushed thru. They (NWS) are still uncertain as to where, exactly, the hose will be pointed thus who will get the greatest rainfall totals. The NWS also cautions that if you have looked at the latest readings for the Wilson and Nehalem River you will see the models lowered the crest. This may have given you a false sense of security as minor changes with the system would make a big difference and there will likely continue to be variations in the forecasting models. With some of the heavy rainfall amounts there could also be some small stream flooding take place. This will ALL be looked at again tomorrow and a Flood Watch would be issued then if necessary.

As for winds, a standard event in this regard, winds southwesterly Saturday 15-25 gusting to between 40-50 along the coast, 35 inland.

I will update again in the morning and I get another special briefing tomorrow afternoon and will pass on the information afterwards.

Heavy rain expected for the weekend!

A good band of showers pushed thru about 5 this morning, it woke me up, more showers are expected today, tonight, and tomorrow, associated with more disturbances rotating under the large low pressure system still to our northwest. One of these disturbances will bring rain tonight that will last into the morning, then; the shower activity diminishes Friday afternoon ahead of a developing complex weather system which will bring abundant rainfall to the area on Saturday. This starts with a warm front bringing rain and gusty winds to the coast with rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches possible. The models all agree that this system will bring plenty of rain Saturday evening and night but vary on exactly where the heaviest amounts will fall. As the National Weather Service puts it, this is a critical detail that will directly affect the amount of rainfall and flooding potential. Currently the Wilson and Nehalem Rivers are forecasted to crest Saturday night around 10pm above Action Stage but below Flood Stage. Some good news though, this time frame coincides with a low tide period at around 11pm. This needs to be watched closely for changes and I will update the forecasts this afternoon and tomorrow as needed. Sunday we may see a break in the activity but Monday the Cold Frontal portion of the system will again bring more wind and rain. Beyond this, light rain showers are expected into midweek. Highs for this period in the low to mid 50s with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Possible Freezing Rain in the Valley Thur/Fri

As there will be lots of travel plans into the valley over the next few days, I thought I would pass on this Sepcial Weather Statement from the NWS for the valley:

Potential for freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning for the North Williamette Valley, Gorge and Hood River Valley.

With the cold air that has been in place this week, there is a chance that some freezing rain could develop in advance of an incoming system. Overall the airmass will be warming, but an easterly pressure graduent through the George may keep pockets of cold air around the area, potentially giving a period of freezing rain overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The chances of this occurring are better in the Gorge and Hood River area.

Even though this is a low probably event, it has the potential to cause a lot of impact due to the holiday travel season. Stay tuned for this potential weather event.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Snow level 1200" now and dropping thru the day.

NWS Statement as of 5:34am PST on November

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10pm PST this evening for the Willapa Hills and the north and central Oregon Coast Range.

*Timing...snow showers will increase this morning...with steady snow this afternoon and evening.

*Accumulation...another 3-6 inches today and tonight.

*Snow levels...near the surface in the Willapa Hills. Snow levels near 1200 feet in the north and central Oregon Coast Range...lowering to the surface tonight.

*Impact...roads will likely become snow covered and hazardous for travel.

Precautions/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Even colder weather coming with a snow potential.

A Special Weather Statement from the NWS Portland.

Another system will drop south out of British Columbia today, bringing snow to the coast range, the Foothills, and the Cascades this afternoon and tonight. Snow levels will generally be between 1000-1500' but may fall to 500' in southwest Washington tonight. Winter Weather Advisories for this afternoon and tonight have been issued for the Oregon Cascades and Foothills as well as the central Coast Range.

A stronger system will drop south out of British Columbia on Monday allowing more significant cold air to filter into southwest Washingtonm and Northwest Oregon. Snow levels will lower to near the valley floor late Monday afternoon thru Monday night, with the potential for light accumulations as the system drops to the south. The Coast may also see some snow by Monday night. The best threat for significant low elevation snowfall will be the Gorge where 2-4" may fall. The Coast Range and Foothills may see 3-6" of new snow, with 6-12"in the Cascades. Lighter amounts are expected over southwest Washington with the heavier amounts further south.

Low temperatures in the valley are likely to drop into the 20s Monday and Tuesday nights, with slow moderation to follow for the latter half of the week. After Monday night it appears drier conditions are in store as high pressure builds over the region.

Now would be a good time to make preparations for colder temperatures and possibly snow in the lowlands.

Friday, October 29, 2010

More sun today, more rain tomorrow!

A low pressure system off the northern California coast continues to push clouds over the area this morning. Some fog formed this morning signaling weak high pressure building in which will enable more sunshine today. Never fear, it will be short-lived as another approaching system will cause the clouds to return by tomorrow morning, then a threat of rain around noon tomorrow, light at first, then as a trough approaches later tomorrow evening, the rain will intensify and we become a little breezy, wind southwesterly 10-15 gusting to 25. Sunday still a little breezy with some light showers lingering. Starting Monday a weak ridge builds over the area but with a front to the north Monday and Tuesday, a rogue shower could affect the area. The models diverge after that, some say fair weather starting midweek, others show another low moving down the coast with a strong front moving through the area. You’ll just have to pace the floor until Monday to see what future models tell. Temperatures for the period range from the upper 50s to low 60s for highs and mid to upper 40s for lows.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Rain ending tonight, returns on Saturday!

I have had lots of request for good weather that stretch all the way into next week. While I’m in sales, not production, I can at least let you know the news, good and bad.

A low pressure center off the Oregon coast continues to sink south towards California but is still spreading light rain northward across our area. This low will continue to slide southward from the area tonight which will end the rain later tonight into Friday. The next front brings in rain Saturday afternoon which will start as light rain at first then increase into the evening until the front pushes through sometime Saturday night. Showers behind the system will linger into Sunday then the models show a high pressure ridge building in which last through midweek. The National Weather Service leaves showers in the area because there is some doubt that the ridge will be strong enough to hold off the next system, and, exactly when the ridge will break down. We will have one more day to look at it before the weekend. Temperatures for the period, highs 55-60 and lows 45-50.


Tuesday, October 26, 2010

More showers, possible hain and thunderstorms

Showers with periods of brief heavy rain and possible hail, and an occasional thunderstorm are forecasted again today as a minor disturbance moves across. The activity will decrease overnight as high pressure builds in briefly but could cause patches of dense fog around daybreak then Wednesday will be dry except a system will move to our south so some rain may sneak in Wednesday night. After that, the active weather pattern continues with systems moving over or close to the area Thursday night/Saturday morning, another Saturday afternoon or night, and a third Sunday night. The extended models show more in store for Monday and Tuesday. As for NWS alerts, there is still a High Surf Advisory until 10am, a Small Craft Advisory until 5pm, and the Cascades are still under a Winter Storm Warning until 11am today.


Monday, October 25, 2010

"Fun" weekend and more showers today into tomorrow!

Yesterday was interesting, high winds, gusting to 61 in Garibaldi and 50 in Pacific City, 2-3 inches of rain fell locally over the weekend, thunderstorms, record daily rainfall in Portland (1.06) and Troutdale (1.58) and, further east, a Winter Storm Warning for the Cascade snow already being measured in feet in some areas.

Today, a strong westerly flow will continue to stream in moisture which is combining with the unstable air aloft to generate showers and a chance of more thunderstorms. Another disturbance moves through tonight and early Tuesday to enhance the shower activity then, Tuesday afternoon the activity slowly decreases and Wednesday a ridge builds in briefly to dry things out though we can expect some morning fog. Thursday a weak system brings in more rain then a trough sets up offshore to help keep a threat of rain in the forecast until the next front due this weekend.

Most of the Advisories, Watches and Warning in our area have been canceled or allowed to expire except the High Surf Warning which is still in effect until 6pm today for large swells, 25-30’ this morning, peaking at 30-35’ before dropping to 25-30’ again this afternoon and slowly diminishing to 20’ by Tuesday.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Strong winds and heavy rain for the weekend!

The lull before the storm, which is expected later tonight, and another one Saturday night. We could still see some spotty showers today before the next stronger system brings us more rain tonight into tomorrow morning. This system will mainly bring some rain, probable around a half an inch. The third and strongest of the systems impacts the coast Saturday night bringing strong winds and areas of heavy rain. This system has the potential to bring high winds to the beaches tomorrow night, gusting to at least 65 mph, and dumping 1-3” of rain into Sunday morning. Another wave will bring another dose of potentially heavy rain (another 1-3”) Sunday night into Monday morning, and, if you are planning travel across the Cascades you need to be prepared for tumbling snow levels with significant snow amounts expected down to near pass level (3,500-4,000’) by late Sunday afternoon and night. Once we get past all this, it appears a ridge may dry thing up, briefly, around the middle of next week.

So, with all this bad weather the National Weather Service has issued the following Advisories, Watches and Warnings:

High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night near the beaches and highlands for potential wind gust to 65 mph.

Gale Warning for the coastal waters from 6pm this evening until 5pm Saturday.

Storm Watch for the same waters from Saturday afternoon thru Sunday morning.

High Surf Advisory has not been issued (yet).

Coastal Flood Watch is being evaluated due to the expected higher tides and surf.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

The sun is gone!

We can say goodbye to the sun for a while, the high pressure that provided the nice weather for the last week has moved on to the east and has been replaced by a weak front off the coast that will bring us a chance of light precipitation later tonight into Friday morning. We get a brief break before a stronger system gives us more rain Friday night into Saturday. The system after that, expected later Saturday into Sunday, will be the one that is being fueled by tropical moisture and a strong upper level jet stream. This one has the potential for moderate to occasionally heavy rain and strong, gusty, southerly winds, especially along the coast. The long range models keep the strong jet over the top of us for much of next week so I would expect showers the beginning of the week with the possibility of other embedded disturbances causing a threat of showers, off and on, through at least midweek. Beginning Sunday the snow level is expected to drop down to around 4,000’ with significant snow expected in the Cascades down to near pass levels.


Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Wet and Windy Weekend Expected

A significant change to wet and windy expected for the weekend. The ridge of high pressure that has provided us this great weather for the last few days will move eastward today as a trough sets up off the coast tonight, allowing several systems to affect our weather starting tomorrow night. The first system, starting tomorrow night into Friday, will bring some rain and wind but should be relatively weak. The next system comes Saturday morning in the form of a warm front and will bring somewhat heavier rains and increasing winds. Saturday afternoon a stronger system develops to our northwest and will have tapped moisture from a tropical system currently affecting China. When this system begins pushed ashore Saturday night it could bring moderate to heavy rain and winds to the coast. This system will also drop the snow level to below the Cascade Pass level, possibly as low as 3,500-4,000’. This could be the first significant snowfall for the higher elevations beginning late Sunday into Monday. For us, it looks like we can expect breezy conditions with 3-5” of rain for the weekend.


Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Two more nice days, then rain thru the weekend!

Ahhh…another clear, crisp Autumn morning in Tillamook County. The patchy morning fog has dissipated and we are left with some high cirrus clouds moving through the area. We look to enjoy one more of these before the high pressure responsible for the excellent weather moves out and an upper level trough sets up off the coast. Thursday a slight rain threat develops and represents the first of several systems to affect our weather into next week. A couple stronger systems move over the area during the weekend which could bring significant rainfall and breezy conditions starting Friday evening or early Saturday morning. Once the rain starts it could be with us through the start of next week.


Monday, October 11, 2010

Rainy weekend but now some sun!

A couple decent storms over the weekend brought plenty of rain. The real winners were up in Washington where Cougar received 7.96 inches of rain. Here in Oregon, Astoria won with 3.42 inches, Seaside received 3.06, and Tillamook, 2.07. Now that those systems are out of the way we will enjoy some high pressure which is helping to give us some fog today and tomorrow which will burn off by noon leaving us with plenty of sunshine and some east winds. Wednesday night conditions shift again ahead of the next system. Southerly winds will push the marine clouds up the coast and Thursday we become mostly cloudy again with a chance of some drizzle. The main energy from the next system should pass us to the north into Washington and Canada though we may still see some intermittent periods of some light precipitation anytime between Friday and Sunday.

The only other important information is…no significant weather will be allow this week as I will be away at a conference from tomorrow through Thursday. Hold all weather, and calls, until Friday…


Friday, October 8, 2010

Series of systems expected this weekend!

Rainy and breezy today, tomorrow, and Sunday. The satellite picture clearly shows the developing cold front racing towards the coast. The good news is the main core of energy appears headed for Washington/Canada though we will still see some significant winds and rain. This is only the first in a series of storms to affect our area through the weekend. We can expect another storm Saturday and another storm Sunday with occasional periods of moderate rain which will give us storm totals of between 2-4 inches for the weekend. Once the last storm moves out of the area on Sunday, the cold air aloft will cause showers which also diminish overnight into Monday. The winds will increase this afternoon and evening, becoming southerly 15-20 gusting to 35, a little higher as each system moves through, especially along the beaches that could see gust to 45-50 as the systems themselves cross. For Columbus Day, partly sunny during the day and mostly cloudy that night, high around 62, low near 48. Expect another trough to bring another threat of rain around the middle of next week.


Thursday, October 7, 2010

Heavy rains and winds expected

The high pressure has weakened and moved on out and a trough has set up which has allowed the cooler marine layer and associated clouds to roll back in. Starting tonight, I guess we’ll say summer is officially over and by tomorrow we see the first in a series of systems move through that will give us plenty of rain and winds all weekend, and, snow in the Cascades! The sequence looks something like this, what is left of a front brushed the coast Friday is evening, then a warm front passed through tonight, followed by a wet and windy cold front through early morning Saturday, but then slows down so the rain will hang around most of the day, then, a shot of cold air surges through Saturday night into Sunday causing more rain. After ALL that, a high pressure ridge builds in enough to push most of the weather north of the area though there is still a slight chance of a shower here and there.

Now let’s talk a little about that Friday/Saturday coastal weather. First, we can expect several inches of rain for the event, with the heaviest rain occurring late Friday into Saturday morning. The rivers are quite low and will handle the rain without any concern but know that if you are traveling you need to slow down so add extra time to your plans and keep your headlights on. Next the winds, the heaviest of these will occur Friday night into Saturday morning as well. We can expect southerly winds 15-25 gusting to 35, increasing with the front as it pushes through, 25-30 gusting to 40-45 along the beaches. The National Weather Service has already issued a Gale Watch for the coastal water from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning which means some significant seas as well with combined sea building to 15’ starting Friday night into at least Monday. Finally, yes, they are talking snow in the Cascades on Monday but us, temperatures 55-60 for highs Saturday and Sunday, lows 42-47 Sunday and Monday nights.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Week of 10-4-10 (already!)

We have what’s left of a weak front moving ashore at the WA/OR border this morning though there does not appear to be much precipitation associated with the front. Still some patchy fog out there, and we can expect increased cloudiness as the weak front pushes through around noon-ish, maybe a light shower as it interacts with the coastline and mountains. A ridge begins building in tomorrow so expect some sun breaks in the afternoon, breezy also, winds northerly to start, 8-12 gusting to 20 but shifting to northeasterly overnight 10-15 gusting to 25. With the high pressure building, we can expect warmer conditions Wednesday with a high in the low 70s. The models show an onshore flow returning Thursday which would bring back the clouds and cooler air, then unsettled weather to bring a chance of rain through the weekend.


Friday, October 1, 2010

TGIF October 1st.

We still have an upper level high pressure ridge over the area though it is weaker today, allowing a weak disturbance to move across. This is giving us a southwesterly flow that has pushed in the cooler marine layer, and clouds, that will hang around all day. The high pressure will move east tomorrow as a trough pushes towards the area and by tomorrow night, late, we have a 20% chance of rain that gradually increases to 40% by Sunday morning, then a weak front pushed through making rain likely Sunday night into Monday morning. The National Weather Service forecast finally mentions snow for the first time also, over in the Cascades and the Willamette Pass, though not much accumulation is expected. After that, nice (dry and warm) weather appears to return mid week lasting through at least Friday.


Monday, September 27, 2010

Better weather comin...

A southwest flow with some subtropical moisture today means a cloudy, drizzly, foggy morning followed by a mostly cloudy day. Tomorrow high pressure starts to build in so we should see more sunshine tomorrow afternoon. Thursday and Friday the systems pass off to our north thanks to the high pressure which gives us partly cloudy skies both days then starting Saturday all the models all go off into different directions. For now we’ll go with an increased onshore flow which would push in the clouds as an upper level trough approaches the coast, which also gives us a slight chance of rain. Temperatures this week will run in the upper 60s for highs and upper 40s to mid 50s for lows.


Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Variable weather pattern, Winter weather coming

The patchy morning fog has burned off as one weak disturbance passes to the north, then, another will pass to our south tomorrow as high pressure builds over our area. So tomorrow will be similar to today then Thursday a weak frontal system ups our rain chances before another ridge builds in Friday and Saturday pushing the temperatures up into the low 60s. Saturday night another frontal system threatens a chance of rain into Monday though the models are not real clear on this.

I have had several folks ask about this fall and winters weather expectations. Well, it isn’t the best of news, potentially. It appears we are in for a relatively strong La Nina year in the equatorial region which continues to strengthen. La Nina is a condition in the equatorial Pacific where the waters are unusually cold, the opposite of El Nino. La Nina conditions are characterized by warmer than normal temperatures in the southeast US and colder than normal temperatures in the northwest, between October and to March time frame. It is also characterized by higher than normal precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest while it typically favors lesser precipitation in the southwest, and the mid and lower Mississippi River Valley. While this is all about averages, I will point out the last La Nina years were the winter of 2007/08.


Monday, September 20, 2010

Record Rain and Temperatures.

Several records were set over in the valley this weekend. A couple places set records for high minimum temperatures overnight and a few new records were set for 24 hour rainfall totals. Fortunately, none were in our area. As for this week’s weather, more showers today due to an upper level trough hanging over the area. Tomorrow and Wednesday it will be dryer but expect some morning fog which burns off around 11am daily, leaving a few high clouds racing across the area. The next front brings another shot of rain to the coast around Thursday before a drying/warming trend develops on Friday and Saturday. For now it looks like the next shot of rain approaches Sunday, subject to change without notice!


Friday, September 17, 2010

Another 1-2" of Rain Expected

Rain, heavy at times today. Looking at the radar shows rain, some heavy, moving northeast towards the area, stretching from our area southwest off the radar scope west of northern California, so, we will see rain for much of the day, in fact, we can expect another 1-2 inches today. All this compliments of a stalled front over our area, along with several disturbances riding along the front the rest of day. Things will calm down some overnight before cranking back up again later tomorrow. Sunday the rain becomes more showery, and lighter into Monday then things start to dry out into midweek, finally!


Thursday, September 16, 2010

Fall preview!

A preview of things to come…Fall! It appears the front has gone stationary to our north with a band of rain and showers racing to the northeast along the line which is over the Astoria area at this time. So, we will see more rain today, adding to the 1-2” we have already received from the system. It looks like a disturbance will develop on the front that will push the front to the north some today but, the front will drop back to the south again tomorrow before going stationary once again. Another stronger disturbance will develop on the front tomorrow afternoon and evening providing up to another 1-3” of rain through Saturday, depending on exactly where the disturbance hits the coast. The main dynamic in this system is the upper level low pressure system that has sat over the northeast pacific for the past few days. This is forecasted to open up and become a trough of low pressure over the weekend then move inland on Sunday and cause more showers. The models are mixed for beginning of next week so for now we’ll go with partly sunny days and mostly cloudy nights with a slight chance of showers daily through midweek.

Drive Safe and turn your headlights on!


Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Rain on the way!

An approaching front signals rain for the area today. A look at the radar shows rain echos about 60 miles off the coast moving northeast. The front itself should make it through the area this evening then an upper level low pressure system gets cutoff and remains over the northeast Pacific for the next several days allowing disturbances to rotate up across the area until Friday, when the upper level feature begins to move east and across the region this weekend and yep…more rain or rain showers. As for next week, the models are suggesting cool but dry to start.


Monday, September 13, 2010

What a great weekend, if we can burn off these clouds we should be able to squeeze out a couple more before the rain returns. The clouds are courtesy of a weak onshore flow, and are expected to burn off before noon with high pressure building in again. Midweek a front brings the threat of rain, especially later Wednesday into Wednesday night as the front move through. Now the bad news, a low pressure system is expected hang to our northwest for a while which will allow several more frontal systems to affect our weather through the end of the week and into the beginning of next week.

You probably heard about all the accidents that closed Hwy 6 and Hwy 101 for hours over the weekend. The good news is I was doing computer work each time, monitoring the radio so was able to send out the information immediately using the new alert notification system Nixle. Nixle is a new FREE service that allows me to send out up-to-date, secure, information affecting the county by e-mail and cellphone text messaging. To sign up, goto and create an account. The nice thing is you can customize your alerts to your city, zip code, or county, the choice is yours!


Thursday, September 9, 2010

Thursday Cloudy Forecast

First, thanks to all that attended the Preparedness Workshop last night. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did and that you learned something to help you further your preparedness goals.

As for the weather, the slow moving upper level low pressure system is moving off to the east today though another disturbance is rotating around the low, and across our area which is giving us the light showers we see this morning. This activity will diminish later today, becoming widely scattered under mostly cloudy skies as a weak ridge of high pressure builds so maybe some drying for the start of the weekend. The models are now starting to show the ridging holding through the start of next week so I will continue to watch this but it would mean less rain next week. Temperatures should continue to run in the mid 60s for highs and the mid to upper 40s for lows.


Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Wednesday, Sept 8th

More rain and rainshowers today thanks to an upper level low pressure system dropping over the area. Currently there is a band of moderate rain moving south through the Cannon Beach area so we can expect that to affect the area over the next few hours. The shower activity will diminish tonight to about a 20% chance which last until the low pressure system finally pushes off to the east and a weak high pressure system dries us off for Friday. The long range models still show another low pressure system moving in from the northwest this weekend so, more onshore flow and a slight chance of showers for the start of next week. Looks like we are stuck in the pattern of a couple days of showers, a better day or two before the next system brings another threat of rain. And NO, fall doesn’t start until the 22nd! We are still in summer????


Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Week of 9-7-10.

We had a relatively good weather weekend for all the special events taking place all around the county. Things clouded up yesterday and a weak cold front went through last night. Next we have an upper level low sagging down over the area which will help generate some showers and possible even a thunderstorm today. This system will be slow to leave so showers stay in the forecast for the next couple days. The long range models show other weak disturbances passing through that could give us a threat of showers later in the week and weekend. So, overall, cool, showers at times, with some dry periods tossed in here and there.

And a reminder, it's the first day of school so leave a little early and take your time!

Friday, September 3, 2010

TGIF, Sept 3rd

It looks like we will squeeze out one more nice day before the fall weather that we had ALL summer returns. Warm and dry today, high around 70, then the clouds move in tonight as the westerly winds push in the cooler marine air once more, and a disturbance moves through giving us a slight chance of some of that light precipitation late tonight into early tomorrow morning. After that we will be cooler, and between systems, the next one expected to give us another slight shot of rain late tomorrow night into Sunday morning. As for next week, look for the active weather to continue, with periods of rain possible as weak systems move through the area, this all the models agree with, they just have issues on exactly when.


Monday, August 30, 2010

This Weeks Forecast - 8/30/10

So, five years ago I was dealing with the mother of all storms, Hurricane Katrina! A lot has changed in five years, at least for me. Today I am talking about a pacific front that is moving through the area that is actually producing some measurable rain for a change. One the front has passed the area we will still have a chance of lingering showers though that chance diminishes this evening. Another system will approach the area later tonight into tomorrow giving us about a 40% chance of showers until a ridge builds in later Wednesday giving us decent weather for Thursday and Friday. As for the weekend, a trough off the coast will push the clouds and cooler marine air in…again! So, cool and rainy today, cool with intermittent showers tomorrow, warmer Wednesday with a few lingering showers possible, nice Thursday and Friday, then same old weather for the weekend.


Friday, August 27, 2010

TGIF Forecast

An upper level trough has set up near the area, again, and will push in that cooler marine air through the start of next week. This will also allow weak disturbances to rotate across the area which gives us a chance of drizzle or even showers at various times each day through Monday. Starting Tuesday, a weak ridge should improve conditions, giving us more sun and warmer temperatures through at least the middle of next week.


Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Cooler temps, more clouds, and precip

Hot and dry today, at least in the valley. As for us, mild but increasing clouds as the onshore flow returns thanks to an approaching weaker cold front to the northwest. It looks like we will see cloudy conditions with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle developing tonight into tomorrow morning. After we add daytime heating to the mix tomorrow afternoon, we will start to see some breaks but it could also trigger a shower or two. Once the front pushes through we will still have an upper level trough off the coast that hangs around for some time so starting Friday we have a slight chance of showers daily, thanks to weak disturbances that rotate through at various times each day all weekend and into the start of next week.


Monday, August 23, 2010

Warm start to the week!

Summer returns for the beginning of the week thanks to high pressure building over the area today and remaining through midweek. This will also provide us with some breezy northeast winds later today and tomorrow along with sunny days and clear nights. We can expect temperatures in the low 70s today and in the low to mid 80s for tomorrow then Wednesday the offshore flow weakens as another upper level trough sets up and pushes the clouds and cooler marine air in. With the thickening marine clouds and weak disturbances rotating through we can look for some drizzle Wednesday night into Thursday morning then another disturbance gives us a threat of showers Friday night into the weekend.


Friday, August 20, 2010

Chilly Start

It is chilly this morning, the early clearing skies allowed the temperatures to drop into the mid 40s, down to the dew point which has caused some dense fog in spots so put your headlights on, please! A weaker ridge of high pressure rest over the area today into tomorrow then a trough will drop down into the area and drag a weak front through later Saturday into Sunday giving us a slight chance of showers. Starting Monday a stronger ridge sets up and we will see warmer (lower 70s) and dryer weather through Tuesday. The long range models suggest we will return to our cooler (mid 60s) and cloudier onshore flow after that thanks to another trough moving into the area.


Thursday, August 19, 2010

More fog and drizzle, oh, I already said that!

A strong marine push again today has thickened the clouds and produced some drizzle this morning. The clouds have dropped down to the ground in some areas…we call that fog, so use those headlights and watch for the patchy fog while driving. We might see a brief break here and there again this afternoon and the winds will start up again from the northwest 5-10 gusting to 20. After today an upper level trough sets up off the coast, again, which means more nighttime and morning clouds followed by partial afternoon clearing. The trough appears to move in later Saturday which gives us a slight chance of a shower Saturday night into Sunday. As for next week, the long range models show a ridge building in which would suggest less clouds and warmer temperatures. I’ve got my fingers crossed.


Tuesday, August 17, 2010

More fog and drizzle.

Another drizzly start today with the high pressure ridge over the area beginning to weaken and move off to the east as a couple weak systems start to push at it from the west. This means more fog and drizzle again tonight into tomorrow morning as the marine layer gets a push from the increased onshore flow that is developing. Thursday more clouds and fog by morning though we will be between systems then same old forecast for Friday, cool with clouds that break some in the afternoon. As for the weekend, continued cool with a slight chance of some light showers as weak trough sags into the area from the northwest. The long range models show improving again next week.


Monday, August 16, 2010

Monday, August 16th, 2010

The weather along the coast was pretty good this weekend, especially for the Tillamook County Fair which I learned was rated as one of the top ten fairs in the U.S. by USA Today. Anyway, the same can’t be said for other nearby areas, several record highs were set or tied yesterday, Eugene was 101, beating the 100 record set in 2008 and Astoria tied their record of 90, set in 1942. As for us, today should be a repeat of yesterday with the clouds burning off leaving mostly sunny skies this afternoon with highs here in town near 72, cooler at the coast and back in the 90s past Lee Camp and into Portland. More clouds and fog again tonight then tomorrow the high pressure weakens as a weak system approaches the area so - not as warm with an increased marine influence. Increasing clouds and cooler marine air overnight means a chance of drizzle by Wednesday morning along with less sun in the afternoon. Thursday we get a short break as we would be between systems then starting Friday, the proverbial trough returns, along with the clouds, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers, for the weekend.

The longer range models suggest we will see some more periods of nice (warmer) weather through the end of this month and the beginning of next month so don’t put the sunscreen away just yet! Summer has not left the building!


Thursday, August 12, 2010

Gordon says "Fair" - Fair Weather!

Warmer today, sort of hot tomorrow, thanks to an offshore flow developing, courtesy of a large high pressure area building over the Northwest Pacific today into the weekend. The marine clouds should break up early today leaving us with a pleasant, relatively cloud free afternoon. While we will have light northwest winds today, they will become northeast tonight so tomorrow, without our natural air conditioning, temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s under clear skies, and the same again on Saturday, with the valley reaching into the mid to upper 90s. Sunday the offshore flow weakens ahead of a low pressure system drifting towards the coast and by the beginning of next week, an onshore flow returns to push in the marine layer which beings in the cooler and cloudier conditions.


Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Fair Week Forecast!

Okay, the “Official” Fair Week forecast – NO RAIN, clearing skies and warmer!

Today we have an upper level low drifting south, to our east, with the ever present upper level trough in the area also. This combination means we have about a 20% chance of a light shower along the north coast area today. The low will push to the east later tomorrow along with the trough, then, high pressure starts to build in so - some sun breaks tomorrow, even more Thursday, and starting Friday, bring your sunscreen to the fair during the day as there will be plenty of sun along with warmer temperatures with an OFFshore flow, infact, the temperature is forecasted to reach into the low 80s Friday, the upper 70s Saturday, then start cooling down by Sunday as the offshore flow weakens. Back to a cooler onshore flow by the start of next week as another upper level low approaches the area…again. If you are NOT going to the fair, but driving over to the valley instead, the valley temperatures could reach into the mid 90s by the weekend.



Monday, August 9, 2010

Monday and Fair Week's Weather

I bet you would have never guess, but, an upper level trough is causing the marine layer to thicken this morning, and, an upper level low is expected to drift down near the area this evening and meander around close enough to effect our weather nearly all week. Exactly where this low drifts will drive the amount of rain we may or may not see. With no steering currents, its exact path is hard to say. Regardless of the exact path, it keeps us in an onshore flow which equates to cool temperatures, cloudy nights and mostly to partly cloudy and breezy afternoons. The good news, the weekend’s long-range models are suggesting high pressure building over the area starting Friday which means improving weather in store, mostly sunny days and partly cloudy nights with daytime temperatures in the upper 60s.


Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Wednesday's Forecast

An upper low over Washington and the persistent weak upper level trough off the coast means we are getting little relief from the onshore flow that has kept us cloudy with little sun. It appears neither will be rushing out of the area anytime soon so the forecast is an easy one. Cloudy, drizzly mornings and maybe a few sun peeks in the afternoons through the end of the week. To spice things up just a little, the models are still showing a weak cold front moving south across the area this weekend which gives us a chance of light rain or drizzle, outside the usual early morning hours. It also means the high, which had been running in the mid 60s, will be around 61 on Sunday. As for next week….take a guess…if you said night and morning clouds with partly sunny afternoons, you guessed correctly, and win a gold cloud!

Friday, July 30, 2010

More of the same

I know I sound like a stuck record but, we are still talking about the weak upper level trough off our coast that has caused the persistent morning clouds and drizzle. The trough will start to move east this weekend but don’t get to excited, it will stall over us so the weather pattern will remain about the same. Again, the only variation is what time does the sun peek through, how breezy will the afternoon be and will there be morning drizzle. Oh, and with the trough over us we will likely be a couple degrees. Look for highs in the low to mid 60s and lows around 51.

I hope to see you tomorrow for the pancake breakfast at the Air Museum, 7am-11am, the proceeds of which benefit the Special Olympics. After that you can hang out at the Northwest Classics where you can see Classic Cars, Classic Motorcycles, and Classic Planes, until 5pm, there will even be a Classic Weather Forecaster there for part of the day.


Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Wednesdays Update - No Change

As promised, a weak upper level trough continues to hang off the coast, giving us an onshore flow that is pushing the low clouds and cooler marine air well inland. The trough is forecasted to finally move on to the east Friday but it will just be replaced by another so the typical summertime pattern will remain into next week. The only variation will be how thick or thin the layer is daily, which drives how much afternoon sun we get. So, the repeating forecast, some sun breaks this afternoon but the clouds and drizzle return tonight, tomorrow looks pretty much the same except we may not see as much (if any) sun. Friday becomes mostly cloudy then starting this weekend on into the beginning of next week, mostly cloudy, a little warmer, highs in the upper 60s, lows around 50.


Monday, July 26, 2010

This Week's Weather

A foggy, drizzly and somewhat cool start for the day thanks to yet another upper level trough off the coast, combined with an upper level low that is moving into Northern California this morning. The result, an enhanced marine layer (clouds) along the coast that will give us some moisture, in the form of light drizzle, in the early morning hours today and tomorrow and possibly Wednesday and Thursday as the trough drifts towards the coast Wednesday and Thursday and the low over California drifts northward through the valley. Actually, the long range models suggest the trough will take until the weekend to push through. So, all that to say…not much changing, cloudy nights and mornings, a chance of misty drizzle in the mornings, with some patches of sun in the afternoon, highs this week in the mid to upper 60s, lows hanging near 50.

Don’t forget to turn on your lights while driving in reduced visibility and rain.
And…stay safe!


Friday, July 23, 2010

TGIF Forecast

The clouds are burning back nicely this morning with high pressure building in that will dominate the weather all weekend. We are forced to endure mostly sunny days with highs in the low 70s and mostly clear nights, lows in the low 50 through at least Sunday. The temperatures over in the valley will be quite warm, 90s with isolated pockets of near 100 which means we will be quite breezy with afternoon gust to near 30. As for next week, another weak trough sets up off the coast so…back to an onshore marine flow bringing cloudy nights with the usual sun breaks in the afternoon, highs in the upper 60s and lows near 50.


Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Nice weekend in store

We can expect the onshore flow to continue to push the marine layer in through the rest of this week. This means more nighttime and morning clouds with some sun in the afternoon along with the usual breezy evenings. Today will be an exception as we had a disturbance move through earlier and have another expected to move near the area late tonight into tomorrow morning so the clouds will have difficulty burning back today and we might see a spot of drizzle overnight and tomorrow morning as it moves to our north. Friday high pressure builds back in so for those that asked that the weather be nice for the weekend’s activities, here you go. Expect slightly warmer conditions with less cloudiness beginning Friday and lasting into the beginning of next week. Weekend afternoon temperatures in the low 70s with nighttime lows in the low 50s. If you are headed into the valley over the weekend, dress appropriately, temps could be rather warm over there! ENJOY ALL!


Monday, July 19, 2010

Little change this week

Not a lot of change in the forecast…what you saw last week you will mostly see again this week. A trough that sat off the coast last week finally moved off, to be replaced by a high today that moves off tonight and gets replaced by yet another trough that sits off the coast again so…more cloudy nights and mornings followed by sun breaks in the afternoons. The only variation is exactly what time the marine layer, and clouds, burns back to the coastline. Highs this week dance around 70 while lows hang down near 50.


Thursday, July 15, 2010

Stuck in a pattern

A relatively shallow marine layer out there this morning means another nice afternoon, sunny but cool. A trough sets up residence off the coast tonight causing a stronger marine push starting tonight so thickening clouds overnight and continued cool temperatures, according to the models this is the pattern into the middle of next week. An easy and persistent forecast, cloudy nights and mornings, some clearing back to the coastline in the afternoons, the usual breezy conditions in the evenings, and cool temperatures. Daytime highs running near 70, nighttime lows around 50. DONE!


Monday, July 12, 2010

This Weeks Forecast - 7/12/10

An upper level disturbance to our north is causing a strong onshore flow in our area which will continue into tomorrow. This is causing the marine layer to thicken and causing considerable cloudiness and cooling the temperatures over the region. We are also seeing patchy light rain and drizzle over the area. The clouds may break up some this afternoon but will return quickly tonight. Conditions will start improving tomorrow afternoon as the upper level system moves off to the east, so slightly warmer with increasing sun in the afternoon tomorrow. Wednesday on it appears high pressure builds back in but with a persistent on shore flow the temperatures hold near the 70 degree mark so expect partly cloudy skies, mild temperatures with breezy afternoons for the remainder of the week. I will mention the extended models are sending mixed signals so we will have to watch the night/morning stratus and fog along the coast if any disturbances make it over the area.


Friday, July 9, 2010

TGIF Forecast

The summertime pattern continues, morning stratus and fog from the marine layer, and partly cloudy to clear afternoon with a westerly breezy. The layer was thinner this morning so will clear out sooner, which bumps the temperature up a few degrees from yesterday. A weak disturbance will increase the onshore flow tonight through tomorrow so increased clouds and later clearing equals slightly cooler temps for the weekend. Your “Back-to-Work” forecast for next week, it now looks like the disturbance will be slow to move out the area on Monday into Tuesday so, with the enhance marine layer being pushed in further, temperatures will strain to reach 70 and the thicker marine layer may give us some light drizzle, especially Monday and Tuesday mornin GMgs. After Tuesday the extended forecast looks better, less clouds, more sun!


Wednesday, July 7, 2010

A HOT one!

Strong High Pressure continues to dominate our weather. Today should be our warmest with the highs around 90, even hotter inland. This has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a Heat Advisory for Inland and the Coast Range areas from 10am today thru 9pm tomorrow. If you work outside, remember to wear your sunscreen, drink plenty of fluids, and take frequent breaks. If you go shopping, DO NOT leave you children or pets unattended in the car. On a day like today, when parked in direct sunlight, the inside of your car can reach 131-172 deg. in only 15 minutes. Tomorrow will be even hotter for the inland areas, for Tillamook and coastal areas though, tomorrow afternoon a weak onshore flow returns so we will not be as hot. Friday the temperature should only…”only” be in the 70s with the coastal marine clouds and patch fog creeping back during the night and early morning hours. Beyond that, little change…mostly clear skies after the morning marine layer burns off, highs near 70, lows in the upper 50s through Tuesday.


Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Hot and Dry next few days

Some patchy early morning fog thanks to clear skies overnight which resulted from the strong high pressure building in over the area. This high pressure will dominate the weather for the next week and will keep us dry and warm into the weekend. Today the flow will turn to the northeast and become gusty allowing the temperatures to climb to the low 80s today, and up near 90 tomorrow. The warmest day looks to be tomorrow with an afternoon seabreeze cooling things down some from Thursday on. The NWS may issue a Heat Advisory all the way to the coast tomorrow but bad news for the valley, the heat will hang with them all week with the temperatures staying in the 90s, with the hottest day for them being Wednesday and Thursday (mid to upper 90s). Anyway, for us, Thursday on look for an afternoon westerly seabreeze to kick in and keep things down in the lower 70s through the beginning of next week along with clear to partly cloudy skies.

Bottom line, for those that work outside, take extra precautions today and especially tomorrow with the heat…as in, take frequent breaks, drink plenty of fluids and wear sunscreen.


Friday, July 2, 2010

Summers coming!

Cloudy and cool again today thanks to another disturbance moving towards the area this morning giving us showers into the afternoon. Winds today a little breezy, westerly 5-10 becoming 10-15 gusting to 20 as the disturbance moves through. Tomorrow, upper level disturbances continue to pass through but are much weaker and with little moisture available, we should see little more than some additional mid and high clouds passing through. A ridge starts to build in late tomorrow to help warm things up for the 4th (Sunday) but there will still be some clouds hanging around and at least one model shows some light precipitation from one final disturbance pushing through the ridge on Sunday night into Monday morning. As for Monday and the rest of next week, each model run builds the high pressure in even more which means even higher temperatures. So, Monday temps start out in the low 70s and by Wednesday, our temperature could actually reach 80. Wednesday and/or Thursday would be the warmest days but the whole week looks sunny, warm and dry. We need to watch for the marine layer to push in later next week which would bring in cooler air and nighttime clouds, we’ll probably be ready by then anyway!


Thursday, July 1, 2010

Early, but detailed 4th Forecast

I’ve had a few special inquiries about July 4th so I thought I would send out this “special” forecast. Currently we have one of a series of disturbances moving through the area giving us some light rain over the area, which will continue until late this evening. Another disturbance will push through tomorrow morning which will keep us cloudy and cooler for Friday, other weaker disturbances will move through on Saturday but with less moisture available there is only a slight chance of any precipitation.

And the important and detailed Independence Day forecast which I will guarantee through at least tomorrow morning, mostly cloudy with about a 20% chance of showers when as the weak disturbances move through, exact times are difficult to determine. The cloud heights will be around 2,500’ during the day, dropping down to around 1,500’ that evening, the clouds will likely increase during the late evening and night with the marine layer pushing in. The early morning lows around 50 and afternoon highs in the upper 60s. Winds from the northwest becoming 10-15 during the afternoon, gusting to 25 in the late afternoon and evening.

And in cast you haven’t heard, next week – summer! Partly cloudy skies and warmer Monday, lots of sun and even warmer on Tuesday and by Wednesday, clear skies, temperature 75-80 here and in the valley, around 90. ENJOY!


Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Wednesday, June 30th...Summers coming!

Summer may be around the corner. Today, an upper level disturbance gave us little more that some mid and high clouds again this morning but this afternoon is shaping up to be another nice day. We can expect more clouds to move in late tonight lasting into Thursday associated with another weak system that will increase our chance of showers Thursday that could linger into Friday. The weekend still looks mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower, an increasing chance of fireworks on Sunday, warmer, then starting Monday, summer, partly cloudy to clear with temperatures near 70 into midweek.


Monday, June 28, 2010

Vacation over, June 28th Weather

Monday and back to work after a week off for my Anniversary, Birthday and Father's Day, and the June Dairy Parade!

The high pressure that gave us such a nice weekend has moved on east and after today our weather will be dominated by an upper level trough that will keep our weather unsettled through the weekend. Right now a very weak front is approaching the state but there is little precipitation associated with the system, just some light rain and drizzle, and the system will likely dissipate as it moves inland. After this our weather will be affected by the upper level trough with weak disturbances riding along the trough, at least through Friday and maybe into the weekend. What this means is cloudy nights, mostly cloudy days thanks to the marine layer which breaks up for a while in the afternoon, cooler with daytime temperatures between 60-65, around 50 for lows, and a slight chance of some light precipitation each day, especially in the early morning hours.

The long range forecast for July 4th , for now, Mostly Cloudy, a slight chance of a light shower, high around 63. The models are a little inconsistent right now, some are showing warmer and dryer, I’ll keep ya updated as the week wears on!


Friday, June 18, 2010

Friday, June 18th

The satellite picture shows an area of low pressure west of Astoria moving south along the Oregon coast. This cleared out the clouds overnight causing the temperatures to drop and for fog to form. Visibilities dropped down to under ¼ miles in some areas this morning and though the fog is burning quickly now, there is still areas with reduced visibility so drive safely. Once the fog burns off, around 10am, we should see mainly sunny conditions for most of the afternoon, with slightly warmer temperatures. There may be some showers develop inland today but they are not likely to make it across the coastal range. The low pressure area will continue to drift south today then turn eastward and move in over southern Oregon Saturday and off to the east by Sunday. This means we could see scattered showers all weekend, again, the question, would any of them make it across the hills? A weak ridge builds over the area Monday and Tuesday warming things up a bit, but with a strong onshore flow, not as warm as it could be, more like “normal”. Tuesday through Thursday, more unsettled weather is expected to return with periods of rain and rainshowers possible.


Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Wednesday, June 16, 2010, More of the same!

By special request, I have had several people ask me to say it will be sunny and dry, to even lie about it so hay…weather turning nice, sunny days, mild temperatures, yahoo….

But alas, this is NW Oregon so…Cool and unsettled weather in store again today, thanks to an upper level feature parked over the area that is causing more cloudiness with occasional light showers today. Of note, we’re half way into the month and PDX has set a new rainfall record set in 1984 of 4.06”. Plenty of time left to add to this also. So today and tomorrow we will have waves of precipitation move across the area and some of the models are now showing another upper level low developing Friday that would enhance the shower threat Friday afternoon. The models vary some on this solution so we could still get lucky. Saturday and Sunday still looks dry and as for next week, how do you spell – more of the same! Onshore flow to keep the temperature below normal, marine cloudiness, and occasional rain/rainshowers. For the record, official first day of summer is June 21st.


Monday, June 14, 2010

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Thanks to this weekend it’s a little safer for me to go outside. Saturday was great with high pressure over the top of us, then, Sunday the high pressure shifted and the marine layer returned to cool things down and give us the usual morning cloudiness that dissipates during the afternoon. This will be the pattern for most of this week also. Tomorrow we do have a 50% shot at some showers as an upper level disturbance moves through, the showers diminish on Wednesday then, more cloudy and cool mornings and partly cloudy afternoons at least through the end of the week. Oh, we can expect breezy conditions again today as the valley heats up, this afternoon the northwest winds will increase to 10-15 gusting to 25-30.


Monday, June 7, 2010

June 7th, Nice Weekend in the Forecast

The strong, and long, Pacific Jet Stream that has plagued our area for a while now and given us system after system, along with record rainfall, persist still. The average rainfall for Tillamook, for the month of June, is 3.41 in., and the actual rainfall through today, and it’s only the 7th, is 4.87 inches.

So this weeks forecast, mostly cloudy today as high pressure builds in, maybe more clearing this afternoon. Tomorrow looks better, dry and warmer but we will see some high level clouds moving in during the afternoon, signaling the advance of the next system expected to bring rain tomorrow night. Showers will continue after the front on Wednesday, then, the showers start to diminish Thursday as a high pressure ridge builds in to hopefully give us a nice weekend, partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures.

Friday, June 4, 2010

Friday, June 4th

Well, the front has raced across the area and is to our east already, so, scattered showers will remain for the rest of the morning. The activity will decrease this afternoon as high pressure quickly builds in. The cause of this weather, an unusually strong and persistent jet is pulling moisture all the way across the Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and shows no sign of letting up any time soon. Tomorrow looks to be a relatively nice day, dryer and warmer with partly sunny skies, however, there is another developing system that should bring us a chance of rain late Saturday night and Sunday. The rain turns to showers later Sunday then high pressure build in again to help dry things out. Again, the jet stream shows no sign of moving or weakening so, with the confused models I will go with another system midweek, a short break then another system towards the end of next week.


Thursday, June 3, 2010

Thursday, June 3rd

We’re in between systems today so we can expect a fairly dry day but then…another strong storm will bring heavy rain and winds to the area late tonight into Friday. The heaviest rain is expected between 10pm tonight to 10am tomorrow. The amount of wind and rain depends on exactly where the main energy comes ashore but we will be breezy none the less. Things calm down quickly Friday night as high pressure quickly builds in. From Saturday on into the beginning of next week it still looks like thing will try to settle down, dryer with variable cloudiness, an occasional threat of a shower as weak disturbances move through, with more normal temperatures. Looking into the crystal ball suggest we will have to wait until summer (June 21st) before we see consistently dryer weather.

To all my readers that have replied to my weather emails, I have forwarded all yalls requests for sunshine but you have to remember, I’m in sales…not production, if you’re not happy with the product you will have to take that up with the manufacturer.


Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Friday, May 28, 2010

Memorial Day weekend forecast

The upper level low that was forecasted to develop to our north has done so a little further south than the models suggested so we have a stronger onshore flow and thus some thick marine clouds that have pushed in giving us some drizzle this morning. This has also increased our chances of seeing a shower today. The onshore flow will weaken tonight and so the clouds should burn off Saturday morning and Sunday should be warmer and dry. The extended forecast for next week, a large low pressure system develops over Alaska Monday which will have areas of disturbed weather that rotate around the low, and over our area, so we can expect off and on showers for most of next week. Temperatures for the period, highs around 60 and lows around 50.


Thursday, May 27, 2010

Thursday's Weather (Weekend looks good!)

Okay…I’m trying to win my fans/friends back with better weather over the holiday weekend! Until then we have a broad upper low pressure system off the south Oregon Coast which has areas of showers rotation around the low and over the region. The greatest threat for shower activity is over in the valley but there is still a chance that one or two could make it over into our area today. The models now show another upper level low developing to our northwest tomorrow giving us an onshore flow that could bring in more clouds and a slight chance of rain, mainly to the north. Now to win back my friends, Saturday AND Sunday look to be dryer and warmer. A weak ridge builds in over the area to give us mostly sunny days and cool nights. Another system approaches late Sunday or early Monday and after that, pick your favorite model as each shows something different. For now anyway, they all agree that the end of next week could be nasty.


Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Happy Holidays! Midweek Forecast

Well, the cold front made it past us before stalling but now we have disturbances riding along the front that will cause precipitation to continue, off and on, over the area for much of today and tomorrow. Friday an upper level low that is contributing to the unsettled weather will move on to the east but we could still see a shower or two develop. The models have all finally come into agreement for the holiday weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build in so dryer weather with mostly sunny days for Saturday and Sunday. It does look like the clouds roll back in Sunday night and more rain is possible Monday ahead of a weak front moving inland on Tuesday.


Monday, May 24, 2010

Monday's Weather, May 24th, 2010

A weak warm front is bringing light rain to the area this morning and the associated weak cold front will bring rain tonight into tomorrow morning then another system will continue the light rain my midday Tuesday into the evening. Once these have passed an upper level low develops and causes showers to stay in the forecast through Thursday. The models do show the low moving on Friday so maybe some better weather for the Memorial Day Holiday weekend!

Friday, May 7, 2010

More Weather finally, May 7th, 2010

Okay, so I'm lazy...I'll try harder...maybe...

The spring like conditions we had this winter have been replaced with winter like condition this spring! We can expect overnight lows to be in the 30s again tonight. Until then we will have a sunny day with only some high clouds moving across the area. Tomorrow more clouds as an upper level feature moves across then on Sunday a system moves through California and we will see some clouds from that system as well as another system to do the same on Monday though this one may give us a shower or two into early Tuesday. By Wednesday, partly cloudy and dry but…it’s only temporary as another front is expected to affect the area on Thursday.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Friday, April 23rd.

No, I didn't leave the country or anything, been away at a class. So, here is the weather!

A chilly start this morning with the temperatures running in the mid to upper 30s. Some mainly high clouds moving across the area ahead of the next system that could bring some light rain later this afternoon. The chance of rain continues into the morning Saturday then, high pressure building in once again Saturday afternoon and evening. Sunday looks to be sunny, dry and warmer so get the grills out! Monday another front develops and moves in Monday evening and night then the rest of next week should look similar to this week with periods of rain with a nice day thrown in here and there.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

April 14th, more of the same!

A complex set of systems continues to give the models, and us forecasters, problems. The system affecting our weather the rest of the week is a low down in Northern California which will send a surge of clouds and rainshowers up into our area from the south later this evening and tonight. Until then it looks to be a pleasant day with lots of sun and mild temperatures. Tomorrow, maybe some lingering showers in the morning but then drying, more sun, and mild again in the afternoon. We could see another surge of rain from the south Friday. As for the weekend, more of the same it would appear. Sunny and mild, except when one of these surges decides to push through the area again, and this looks to continue into the beginning of next week.

Friday, April 9, 2010

April 9th, Another Chilly Morning

It was chilly this morning and it will be even chiller tomorrow morning but, with clear skies. There were snow flurries in the passes and the temperatures were right at freezing this morning at sunrise. We should see decreasing activity this afternoon with clearing skies overnight then tomorrow, a cold, frosty start but it should warm up nicely under sunny skies and breezy east winds. A low pressure system drifts south along the coast over the weekend then moves east through northern California bringing a threat of showers to the area Saturday night into Sunday. Next week an upper level feature will persist over the area to give us showers, off and on, through the week.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

April 8th, Spring...I mean Snow...

The strong cold front raced through a little after midnight and cool temperatures are now spreading over the area with the breezy northwest winds. Temperatures along the passes have already dropped to or near freezing and snow flurries are falling from the showers as they move across. ODOT reports Slush with 1” of new snow on Hwy 26 at 32 degs, and a trace of snow with flurries and spots of ice on Hwy 6 and 33 degs. We can expect more showers to move across the area today, bringing more snow in the passes, and possibly hail here at sea level. We can still see winds gusting to 25-30 in town and 40-45 along the coast so windchills are in the mid 30s. The high today will only reach near 50 and I think travelers will have at least one more night and morning of Coast Range travel concerns with the snow and ice. Saturday looks to be a fair day, milder temperatures and dry. A low pressure system will drift south along the coast over the weekend before moving into California and possibly drive some showers into our area Sunday. Showers taper off Monday then…the models go all over the place.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

April 7th, Snow in the Passes - Again

A warm front is passing to our north but, still close enough to give us these clouds and patchy light drizzle this morning, otherwise it should be mild and dry for most of the day. The system dropped further south than I had hoped so we may not get that sun I had hoped for. As has been the case for a while now, this is short lived as a strong cold front that will bring in more clouds and rain tonight into tomorrow when it finally pushed through, dropping the temperatures by 10 degrees or more after it passes through. This will be another breezy system as well with westerly winds 15-20 gusting to 35, slightly higher along the coast. After the front pushed through early Thursday we then have the post frontal showers and falling snow levels that will cause more snow in the passes, falling as low as 1000’ at times, especially at night, into Friday morning, expect some patchy ice up there during the early morning hours as well. Here is where forecasting is such an exact science. A low pressure system develops off the coast but is absent of steering so it and its associated weather drifts. Current thinking is it will drift south into California. This would give us better weather for the weekend. After that - the long range shows more cool and unsettled weather for next week...again!

There is the “official” forecast. Now for the wild card. This next front is presently developing rapidly and the models don’t handle that development real well. There are some features about this system that would suggest another low pressure area could develop on the front as it approaches the coast which could change things a little. First, it would give us stronger winds over a longer period, because it would also slow the front down. Right now the front is forecasted to make it through in the morning but if this low develops, the front and the associated cold air would be delayed until the afternoon. Either way the passes could be problematic for some, the difference is, for how long!

Have I confused you sufficiently, if not, I wasn’t doing my job well enough!

Monday, April 5, 2010

April 5th Weather

Might be easier to do it this way - Wednesday should be the best day this week with only a 20% chance of showers, some sun breaks, otherwise...more of the same. Models suggest the weekend might be improving, subject to change without notice!

Friday, April 2, 2010

April 2nd Weather

The cold front continues to move towards the coast this morning. The strongest winds and periods of heavy rain will begin this morning and last until the front pushes through around noon today. Winds are forecasted to reach 30-40 with gust to 65-75 at the beaches and highlands. We can expect more showers after the front and continued breezy the rest of today. This system will also provide more snow in the coastal passes and mountains and travelers should use caution when driving into the valley. ODOT Trip Check currently reflects that the snow pack is breaking up on the roads with slush and there is 2” on the roadside. It also says it is currently snowing hard and continuously right now with a temperature of 31. So, more showers tomorrow then Sunday another system causes more rain then rainshowers which persist into the beginning of next week. The only other area of interest may be the rivers which all stay a couple feet below action stage for this event.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thursday, April 1st, and another strong system is on the way!

If, during the winter, you were wondering where winter was, I think we found it! A few more showers will persist today from the last system while another strong cold front is pushing towards the coast and the rain from this next system should move into the coast late tonight. For now, the passes have patches of ice reported on the roads but that will change over the weekend, to snow! Tomorrow morning, around 6-9am the next cold front will move in giving us heavy rains and strong winds again. We have a Gale Watch and a High Wind Watch starting late tonight and lasting through tomorrow afternoon. This system will give us another 2-4” of rain and winds gusting to near 70 along the beaches with the strongest winds in the morning with the front as it moves through. Once the front does make its way through, the snow level, which had lifted briefly, will once again fall to around 1000’. The NWS may issue a Snow Advisory for the Coast Range and a Winter Storm Warning is likely for the Cascades as a result of the additional snow, along with blowing and drifting snow caused by the strong winds that will persist even there.

So, that gets us through today and tomorrow. Saturday will bring more showers with snow in the hills and mountains, until the next moist system arrives late Saturday into Sunday. Exactly where the associated low moves in will drive who gets the heavier precipitation. Showers persist again, after this system, through Tuesday. The models are mixed right now for after mid week.