Less shower activity today and even some breaks in the clouds so we will see that sun thing. Tomorrow morning things will rapidly change, starting with the increasing winds from the southwest 10-15 gusting to 25 as a strong and moist warm front approaches the area from the south. The rainfall amounts and the winds will increase quickly as the front nears with the heaviest of the rainfall moving north of the area by early Sunday morning. After a little break the front will drop southward again Sunday afternoon or evening and bring another round of moderate to occasionally heavy rain then late Monday night or early Tuesday morning the associated Cold Front will push thru bringing…more rain! After that, more unsettled weather off and on the rest of the week and weekend.
Now let’s talk hydrology, nice big word. Yes, flooding is a possibility this weekend. The concern is the 2-5 inches of rain expected could turn into even more with a slight shift in the system. All the models agree that Saturday will be a very wet day, where they differ are in some of the important details like exact timing and location. Right now it looks like the hose will be pointed toward Washington but having said that, it still looks like we will get enough precipitation to push our rivers up sharply Saturday night into Sunday. Today’s river forecast reflects that they (National Weather Service Portland, River Forecast Section) expect the Nehalem to crest around 9am Sunday at just above flood stage (14.77’, flood is 14’) and the Wilson to crest just above flood stage around 1am Sunday (12.47, flood is 12). If this trend continues, I would expect the NWS to issue a Flood Watch for those rivers later today.
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