The rivers crested around midday yesterday, the Nehalem River crested at 12.03 and had dropped to 11.43 this morning. The Wilson, which reacts more rapidly, crested at 10.64 and has dropped to 8.39. We have more of these warm, wet, systems expected through the area over the next few day that will again drive up the rivers. We have one today that could give us another half-inch or so of rain, bring breezy conditions, before moving east later today. A stronger, wetter system with tropical origins (Pineapple Express) is expected Saturday into Sunday, with the models still somewhat conflicting on timing and main target zone. The NWS estimates that we could get another 2-3 inches of rain in the Coast Range, and 2-5 inches in the Cascades over the weekend. With the snow level up around 6000’ and the heavy rain potential, there is an increased flood potential for many areas this weekend. I think there is a chance that our rivers could get to bankfull or just above around Sunday. I also think that this will be an event that many other areas will be watching more closely because of their own rivers, from the valley to the Cascades.
Once we make it through this threat, wet and warm will start next week but the models still hint that a ridge of High Pressure will build in the middle of next week to help dry things out though it would also mean cooler conditions.
As we all know, during these heavy rain events where flooding is a potential, tides are a factor, so, I have included the times here for the highest tides using the Garibaldi Tables, for the weekend, and, they have been running above predictions because of the winds.
Saturday Hi 08:27am 8.4
Sunday Hi 09:19am 8.8
Monday Hi 10:09am 9.2
A High Wind Warning for the coastal beaches and headlands has just been issued and is in effect until 1pm today for southerly winds 30-40 gusting to 60.